| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 5–4 |
| 3 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 5–4 |
| 4 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,491 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 9 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.200 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 1 | 5.66 school −0.36 | Jacob Posner / Levi Bailey 2.82 Oliver Nairn / Kirin Dhaka 1.81 Owen Thomas / Solomon Lucero 1.30 | 79% | 6–0 (100%) | +1.2 |
| 2 | Bainbridge High School Spartans | 2 | 4.93 school −0.12 | Ben Stone / Jaya Wirth 1.73 Carter Anderson / Elliott Chalcraft Ryan Downey / Sabrina Anderson 1.81 | 64% | 3–3 (50%) | −0.8 |
| 4 | Sehome High School Mariners | 3 | 1.97 school +0.32 | Levi Morse / Bella Norwood 0.74 Keagan Carrigan / Cole Stebbens Oscar Hayes-Fegley / Britton Sanford | 7% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosevelt High School | 5.66 | 8.66 | 6–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 22% |
| 2 | Bainbridge High School | 4.93 | 3.81 | 3–3 | 3.8 | −1.12 | 0.5 | 93% |
| 4 | Sehome High School | 1.97 | -1.03 | 0–6 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Stone | Bainbridge High School | 1.73 | 0.61 | 3–3 | 3.8 | −1.12 | 0.5 | 93% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Rough Riders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Spartans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Spartans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | Jacob Posner '25 Oliver Nairn '23 Owen Thomas '23 |
Levi Bailey '24 Kirin Dhaka '23 Solomon Lucero '25 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Ben Stone '23 Carter Anderson '23 Ryan Downey '25 |
Jaya Wirth '23 Elliott Chalcraft '23 Sabrina Anderson '24 |
|
Sehome High School | Mariners | Keagan Carrigan '24 Levi Morse '24 Oscar Hayes-Fegley '25 |
Cole Stebbens '24 Bella Norwood '26 Britton Sanford '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
