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NYISA-NW All Girls Championships

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 11 11
2 Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 18 18
3 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 22 22
4 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 26 26
5 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 29 29
6 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 33 33
7 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 38 38
8 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 39 39
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 1 1 2 2 2 3 11 Juliana Lanz '23
Genevieve Heiermann '23
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 3 3 3 1 6 2 18 Angelina Guilfoyle '23
Gabe Ferreira '23
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 4 4 1 4 5 4 22 Ian Bren '25
Andrew Morse '26
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 8 6 7 3 1 1 26 Adelaide Matzky '25
Abigail Ogie '24
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 5 2 6 5 3 8 29 Natalie Dunlap '24
Isabella Fukushima '24
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 2 8 8 6 4 5 33 Aly Dalton '24
Hannah Dearman '24
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 7 5 4 8 8 6 38 Emma Malmstrom Jouannet '25
Grace Felton '23
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 6 7 5 7 7 7 39 Olive Donaghy '27
Sophie Kimelberg '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bruins161616161616
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks141414141414
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders131313131313
Irondequoit High SchoolIrondequoit High School Eagles181818181818
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs171717171717
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings121212121212
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 1888888
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 2111111111111
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins Angelina Guilfoyle '23 Gabe Ferreira '23
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks Natalie Dunlap '24 Isabella Fukushima '24
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders Ian Bren '25 Andrew Morse '26
Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles Juliana Lanz '23 Genevieve Heiermann '23
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs Adelaide Matzky '25 Abigail Ogie '24
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings Olive Donaghy '27 Sophie Kimelberg '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 Emma Malmstrom Jouannet '25 Grace Felton '23
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 Aly Dalton '24 Hannah Dearman '24

Conditions — 04/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1004.8 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.5 kn
Gusts to 10.7 kn
From WSW (249°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover52% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1004.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 3 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Buffalo Seminary: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.41)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.25
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.67 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.41 means a rating gap counts about 36% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Buffalo Seminary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Buffalo Seminary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →