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NYISA-NW Spring Fleet Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 1 10 22 32
2 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 18 42 60
3 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 37 29 66
4 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 37 35 72
5 Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 2 40 39 79
6 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 50 30 80
7 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 59 34 93
8 Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 58 60 118
9 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 51 69 120
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 10 Juliana Lanz '23
Genevieve Heiermann '23
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 3 2 2 2 3 1 2 3 18 Mason Howell '24
Oscar Jorgenson '26
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 4 4 9 2 5 5 6 37 Josh Elliott '24
Matthew Hudi '26
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 4 3 5 4 6 3 8 4 37 Ian Bren '25
Andrew Morse '26
Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 2 5 5 3 3 5 4 6 9 40 Daniel Tarloswki '23
Matt Baker '23
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 7 6 9 8 4 6 3 7 50 Andrew Lindboom '24
Hannah Dearman '24
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 8 7 7 5 7 8 4 5 51 Natalie Dunlap '24
Isabella Fukushima '24
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 6 8 6 6 8 7 9 8 58 Gabe Ferreira '23
Gavin Miller '23
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 9 9 8 7 9 9 7 1 59 Philipp Meyer '24
Aly Dalton '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 1 3 2 5 2 4 1 2 3 22 Isaac Aymerich '23
Cooper Petzing '23
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 4 6 2 3 3 2 7 2 29 Matthew Murad '26
Jack Riley '25
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 6 1 1 5 1 3 6 7 30 Siri Dubois '25
Zoe Pike '24
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 1 3 7 1 6 6 5 5 34 Nolan Lefler '25
Matt Lefler '24
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 4 6 6 5 5 3 4 35 Thomas Ferguson '23
Benjamin Mazurkiewicz '25
Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 2 5 7 4 7 2 4 4 6 39 Violet Richter '23
Gulasal Butaeva '23
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 8 5 9 4 7 7 1 1 42 Olive Donaghy '27
Richard Lagutaine '24
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 7 9 3 8 8 9 8 8 60 Angelina Guilfoyle '23
Aidan Austin '23
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 9 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 69 Nora Ramsdell '26
Rachel Rohring '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bruins1818161613131111
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks17171414121288
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders16161313111177
Irondequoit High SchoolIrondequoit High School Eagles 114141212881818
Irondequoit High SchoolIrondequoit High School Eagles 213131111771717
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings12128818181616
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 111117717171414
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 288181816161313
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders77171714141212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bruins17171414121288
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks16161313111177
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders14141212881818
Irondequoit High SchoolIrondequoit High School Eagles 113131111771717
Irondequoit High SchoolIrondequoit High School Eagles 212128818181616
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings11117717171414
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 188181816161313
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 277171714141212
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders1818161613131111

Conditions — 04/15/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1009.2 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 15.2 kn
From WSW (250°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1009.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Joseph's Collegi: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.29
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.46 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Joseph's Collegi by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Joseph's Collegi, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →