PYC #6 Happy Mother's Day

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing HS 7 7
2 Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees 28 28
3 Okemos High School Okemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed 30 30
4 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue 35 35
5 Troy High School Troy High School Colts 38 38
6 East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing WSMIXED 39 39
7 Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Red 53 53
8 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green 53 53
9 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Gold 54 54
10 Troy High School Troy High School Troy 58 58
11 Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees MIXED 70 70
12 East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing ATMIXED 70 70
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing HS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 Michael Cyrul '24
Michael Kovalchik '23
Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees 2 3 5 3 3 3 9 28 Cara Falkowski '24
Abbey Toner '24
Okemos High School Okemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed 9 5 6 2 4 2 2 30 Blake Glazer '25
Colin Fitzgerald '26
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue RDG 4 3 5 8 5 5 35 Ashwin Kesliker '26
Luc Messner '27
Troy High School Troy High School Colts 7 7 2 7 7 4 4 38 Bella Satterfield '24
Braden Setzer Carmody '25
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing WSMIXED 3 2 11 4 5 7 7 39 William Quick-Severin '26
Logan Miceli '28
Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Red 4 RDG 4 10 6 9 12 53 Isabella Elzon '27
Clara Le Moal '24
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green 5 6 9 6 11 8 8 53 Brennan Breakiron '28 [1, 7]
Michael Butcher '25 [2-3]
Giacomo Delpizzo '27 [4-6]
Michael Butcher '25 [1, 7]
Giacomo Delpizzo '27 [2-3]
Brennan Breakiron '28 [4-6]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Gold 6 11 10 8 2 11 6 54 Aiden Caswell '23
Krish Reddy '26
Troy High School Troy High School Troy 10 10 8 11 10 6 3 58 Nicholas Holmes '24
Logan Rixner '25
Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees MIXED 8 8 12 12 9 10 11 70 Savana Harte '26
Bryce Fowler '24
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing ATMIXED 11 9 7 9 12 12 10 70 Allison Treanor '26
Joseph Spiller '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Bath High SchoolBath High School Fighting Bees2222222
Bath High SchoolBath High School Fighting Bees MIXED8888888
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED Blue15151515151515
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED Gold11111111111111
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing ATMIXED7777777
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing HS4444444
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing WSMIXED16161616161616
Okemos High SchoolOkemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed9999999
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Colts6666666
Troy High SchoolTroy High School MIXED Red14141414141414
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Troy18181818181818
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED Green5555555

Conditions — 05/13/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1020.7 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From ENE (61°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine3.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1020.7 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Detroit Country Day: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.29
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.26 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Detroit Country Day, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →