SAISA Girls Champs - Rock the Boat Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 23 23
2 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 27 27
3 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 28 28
4 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1 34 34
5 Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School 2 40 40
6 Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School 1 42 42
7 Episcopal School of Jacksonville Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ 1 53 53
8 Episcopal School of Jacksonville Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ 2 59 59
9 Wando Wando Warriors 63 63
10 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2 71 71
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 2 1 7 2 1 4 3 3 23 Dorothy Mendelblatt '24 [1-4]
Sidney Moyer '23 [5-8]
Avery Hunter '25 [1-4]
Dorothy Mendelblatt '24 [5-8]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 4 7 1 1 2 1 5 6 27 Ava Mc Aliley '26
Christine Keedy-Brown '24
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 7 2 3 4 5 2 4 1 28 Kate Danielson '24 [1-8]
Rosie Simpson '25 [1-4]
Ainsley Braun '25 [5-8]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1 1 5 2 5 4 6 6 5 34 Tavia Smith '23 [1-8]
Kathryn Smith '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Caroline Smith '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School 2 5 8 8 3 6 7 1 2 40 Isabella Storm '26
Meredith Mckenna '25
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School 1 10 9 5 6 3 3 2 4 42 Audrey Russler '26
Paulina Freyre '25
Episcopal School of Jacksonville Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ 1 8 4 6 7 7 5 8 8 53 Mcrae Busey '25
Stella Herford '26
Episcopal School of Jacksonville Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ 2 3 6 4 9 10 10 10 7 59 Julia Dinzelbacher '25
Maya Jones '26
Wando Wando Warriors 6 3 10 10 9 9 7 9 63 Madeleine Harris '25
Caroline Larrabee '25
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2 9 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 71 Jane Wright '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Emmy Teer '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Petra Humphrey '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2023 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Carrollton School of the Sacred HeartCarrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School 111223344
Carrollton School of the Sacred HeartCarrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School 222334455
Episcopal School of JacksonvilleEpiscopal School of Jacksonville ESJ 133445566
Episcopal School of JacksonvilleEpiscopal School of Jacksonville ESJ 244556677
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 155667788
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 266778899
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders7788991010
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers8899101011
St. Petersburg High SchoolSt. Petersburg High School Green Devils9910101122
WandoWando Warriors1010112233

Conditions — 05/13/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1019.5 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 83°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From NE (53°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1019.5 hPa Rain0.19 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn · SE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bishop Kenny FL/ Episcopal of Jacksonville: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bishop Kenny FL/ Episcopal of Jacksonville by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Bishop Kenny FL/ Episcopal of Jacksonville: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →