SAISA NP #7 (JV)

HostCape Fear Academy/Eugene Ashley/Girls Leadership Aca/John T. Hoggard/New Hanover/Topsail
Date03/18/2023
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV White	20	32	52
2	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV Blue	35	21	56
3	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	19	39	58
4	Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	52	21	73
5	Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	37	37	74
6	Reynolds High School (LTYC)	Reynolds	26	52	78
7	Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington	Phoenix	52	35	87
8	Ben Lippen School	Varsity Sailing	48	53	101

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	5	1	1	4	1	5	1	1	19	William Mccarty '26 Garrett Davis '25
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV White	1	4	3	2	2	4	2	2	20	Jane Wright '24 Olivia Burdette '25
Reynolds High School (LTYC)	Reynolds	3	2	2	1	3	3	3	DNF	26	John Spinosa '25 Lilly Copplestone '24
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV Blue	6	5	5	6	5	1	4	3	35	Eleanor Wright '26 Lawson Kievit '27
Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	2	3	6	3	4	7	5	7	37	Ryden Jarvis '27 [1-8] Sam Warner '27 [1-2, 5-6] Neven Brookins '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Ben Lippen School	Varsity Sailing	4	7	7	5	6	6	8	5	48	Garrett Phillips '24 Samuel Welsford '24
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington	Phoenix	7	6	4	7	7	8	7	6	52	Luca Williamson '24 Caroline Smith '25
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	2	6	4	52	Henry Fanning '27 [1-2, 5-6] Ray Mcdonald '25 [3-4, 7-8] Max Hammer '27 [1-2, 5-6] Alder Lesko '28 [3-4, 7-8]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV Blue	1	4	4	2	4	2	2	2	21	Finn Bell '26 Sean Gallagher '26
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	2	2	3	4	1	7	1	1	21	Trey Medlin '25 [1-8] Gage Bauer '27 [1-2, 5-6] Johnathan Duncan '29 [3-4, 7-8]
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV White	4	3	5	1	6	3	4	6	32	Emmy Teer '25 George Adams '25
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington	Phoenix	5	1	1	6	2	4	8	8	35	Caroline Smith '25 [1-8] Alex Cai '25 [1-2, 5-6] Samuel Medlin '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	3	5	7	5	7	1	5	4	37	Lee Wehr '25 Lucian Lerose '27
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	7	6	2	3	3	6	7	5	39	Hammond Unger '23 [1-8] Savannah Bryan '28 [1-4, 7-8] Alexa Conlon '24 [5-6]
Reynolds High School (LTYC)	Reynolds	6	7	8	8	5	5	6	7	52	William Brady '25 Molly Lovvorn '24
Ben Lippen School	Varsity Sailing	8	8	6	7	DNS	DNS	3	3	53	Haolin Chen '28 No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2023 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	8449	8449	8449	8449	8449	8449	8449	8449
Ben Lippen School Varsity Sailing	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068
Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles	1111	1111	1111	1111	1111	1111	1111	1111
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Phoenix	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV Blue	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV White	401	401	401	401	401	401	401	401
Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	8449	8449	8449	8449	8449	8449	8449	8449
Ben Lippen School Varsity Sailing	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068
Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles	1111	1111	1111	1111	1111	1111	1111	1111
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Phoenix	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV Blue	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV White	401	401	401	401	401	401	401	401
Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	William Mccarty '26	Garrett Davis '25
Raptors A	Hammond Unger '23 [1-8]	Savannah Bryan '28 [1-4, 7-8] Alexa Conlon '24 [5-6]
Ben Lippen School	Garrett Phillips '24	Samuel Welsford '24
Varsity Sailing	Haolin Chen '28	No Show
Cape Fear Academy	Henry Fanning '27 [1-2, 5-6] Ray Mcdonald '25 [3-4, 7-8]	Max Hammer '27 [1-2, 5-6] Alder Lesko '28 [3-4, 7-8]
CFA Varsity	Trey Medlin '25 [1-8]	Gage Bauer '27 [1-2, 5-6] Johnathan Duncan '29 [3-4, 7-8]
Eugene Ashley High School	Ryden Jarvis '27 [1-8]	Sam Warner '27 [1-2, 5-6] Neven Brookins '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Screaming Eagles	Lee Wehr '25	Lucian Lerose '27
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington	Luca Williamson '24	Caroline Smith '25
Phoenix	Caroline Smith '25 [1-8]	Alex Cai '25 [1-2, 5-6] Samuel Medlin '25 [3-4, 7-8]
John T. Hoggard High School	Eleanor Wright '26	Lawson Kievit '27
Vikings JV Blue	Finn Bell '26	Sean Gallagher '26
John T. Hoggard High School	Jane Wright '24	Olivia Burdette '25
Vikings JV White	Emmy Teer '25	George Adams '25
Reynolds High School (LTYC)	John Spinosa '25	Lilly Copplestone '24
Reynolds	William Brady '25	Molly Lovvorn '24

Conditions — 03/18/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 68% · Pressure 1015.5 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 61°F ↓ 36°F

Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.3 kn

avg · max 3.5 kn

Gusts to 9.9 kn

From N (358°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1015.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn · SW 5 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Cape Fear Academy/Eugene Ashley/Girls Leadership Aca/John T. Hoggard/New Hanover/Topsail: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cape Fear Academy/Eugene Ashley/Girls Leadership Aca/John T. Hoggard/New Hanover/Topsail by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Cape Fear Academy/Eugene Ashley/Girls Leadership Aca/John T. Hoggard/New Hanover/Topsail, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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