NYISA-NW Spring Fling Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 6 11 17
2 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 12 15 27
3 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 19 13 32
4 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 18 26 44
5 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 3 26 23 49
6 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 31 26 57
7 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 31 32 63
8 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 3 40 39 79
9 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 4 42 40 82
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 1 1 1 2 1 6 Benjamin Mazurkiewicz '25
Landon Bova '25
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 3 2 2 3 2 12 Josh Elliott '24
Matthew Hudi '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 2 3 4 5 4 18 Matt Lefler '24
Brooks Turcotte '23
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 5 7 3 1 3 19 Philipp Meyer '24
Siri Dubois '25
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 3 4 4 5 6 7 26 Nolan Lefler '25
Heidi Swan-Leuze '24
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 7 5 6 8 5 31 Natalie Dunlap '24
Isabella Fukushima '24
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 8 6 7 4 6 31 Ian Bren '25
Andrew Morse '26
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 3 9 8 8 7 8 40 Thomas Ferguson '23
Luke Hales '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 4 6 9 9 9 9 42 Aly Dalton '24
Zoe Pike '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 1 4 3 2 1 11 Luke Hales '26
Josh Elliott '24
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 2 3 4 1 3 13 Andrew Lindboom '24
Emma Malmstrom Jouannet '25
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 6 1 1 5 2 15 William Wadhams '25
Mathew Terry '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 3 5 5 2 4 7 23 Emma Malmstrom Jouannet '25
Lucy Colburn '24
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 3 8 6 3 6 26 Charlie Marynowski '26
Joe Marynowski '24
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 9 2 5 6 4 26 Liam Clementi '24
Sophia Segrue '25
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 7 6 7 7 5 32 Rachel Rohring '25
Nora Ramsdell '26
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 3 8 7 8 8 8 39 Landon Bova '25
Benjamin Mazurkiewicz '25
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 4 4 9 9 9 9 40 Andrew Lindboom '24
Grace Felton '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks44444
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders1010101010
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 155555
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 299999
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 377777
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 488888
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 111111
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 222222
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 31111111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks44444
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders1010101010
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 155555
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 299999
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 377777
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 488888
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 111111
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 222222
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 31111111111

Conditions — 04/22/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1005.8 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.1 kn
avg  ·  max 13.6 kn
Gusts to 31.9 kn
From SW (218°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1005.8 hPa Rain0.18 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Southwestern Central: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.14 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southwestern Central by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Southwestern Central: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →