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TC tier 3 429

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 5 12 17
2 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 5 13 18
3 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 16 6 22
4 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 11 20 31
5 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 19 12 31
6 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 12 28 40
7 Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees MIXED 26 16 42
8 Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School Mona Shores Mixed 21 22 43
9 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed) 33 16 49
10 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 24 25 49
11 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue (Mixed) 30 30 60
12 East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED 32 34 66
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 1 1 3 5 Lj Nykamp '25
Cameron Bert '26
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 2 2 1 5 Nyle Eggert '24
Andrew Twa '24
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 3 6 2 11 Charlie Vink '27
Elsie Torresen '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 5 3 4 12 Isley Moshier '25
Anders Lyons '26
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 6 5 5 16 Alex Reynolds '24
Max Braund '24
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 4 9 6 19 Jack Hubbard '25
Logan Thien '25
Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School Mona Shores Mixed 7 7 7 21 Lila Torresen '25
Kari Taylor '25
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 12 4 8 24 Tyler Winowiecki '23
Nickolaus Goodwin '27
Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees MIXED 8 8 10 26 Cara Falkowski '24
Abbey Toner '24
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue (Mixed) 10 11 9 30 Evan Mcnanney '25
Bobby Cooper '27
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED 11 10 11 32 William Quick-Severin '26
Owen Watkins '30
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed) 9 12 12 33 Courtney Cowan '27
Elsa Leal '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 2 1 3 6 Lucas Rodenroth '24
Grace Vanstratt '27
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 3 7 2 12 Lucas Williams '26
Parker Bonney '27
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 4 3 5 12 Max Eggert '26
Andrew Twa '24
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 1 2 10 13 Matthew Tevelde '26
Jonas Pearson '25
Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees MIXED 5 5 6 16 Blake Glazer '27
Bryce Fowler '24
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed) 8 4 4 16 Ethan Altamira '26
Henrik Bauman '27
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 11 8 1 20 Gavin Yonker '24
Elijah Parker Baldus '23
Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School Mona Shores Mixed 6 9 7 22 Joshua Hacker '24
Brady Wallace '27
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 7 10 8 25 Sophia Barbas '26
Andrew Roeder '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 10 6 12 28 Winston Hegg '26
Daniel Kotsekon '26
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue (Mixed) 9 12 9 30 Addie Kimmell '25
Ana Kozak '27
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED 12 11 11 34 Owen Krause '25
Colin Fitzgerald '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.290+0.29
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Bath High SchoolBath High School Fighting Bees MIXED133
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed244
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED355
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed466
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue (Mixed)577
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed)688
Mona Shores High SchoolMona Shores High School Mona Shores Mixed799
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed91111
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red81010
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed101212
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed1111
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed1222

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Bath High SchoolBath High School Fighting Bees MIXED244
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed355
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED466
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed577
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue (Mixed)688
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed)799
Mona Shores High SchoolMona Shores High School Mona Shores Mixed81010
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed101212
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red91111
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed1111
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed1222
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed133

Conditions — 04/29/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1002.1 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From W (275°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine6.7 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1002.1 hPa Rain0.14 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →