TC tier 3 506

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon 57
2 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 68
3 West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 129
4 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 132
5 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 174
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon B 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 4 1 1 15 Amelia Traver '24
Lily Johnson '23
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed B 2 2 1 2 4 3 4 5 3 2 28 Isley Moshier '25
Anna Cate Maday '25
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed A 5 5 4 3 6 8 3 1 2 3 40 Alex Reynolds '24
Max Braund '24
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon A 4 6 8 8 1 2 2 2 4 5 42 Greta Traver '23
Sophia Pierce '23
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed A 3 3 5 5 3 9 8 6 7 7 56 Joey Skerbeck '23
Evan Carillo '28
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed A 6 8 7 4 7 7 5 3 9 6 62 Winston Hegg '26
Anders Lyons '26
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed A 7 7 3 9 8 4 DNF 8 5 4 66 Tyler Winowiecki '23
Nickolaus Goodwin '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed B 8 9 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 70 Andrew Roeder '27
Daniel Kotsekon '26
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed B 9 4 9 7 9 5 7 9 6 8 73 Carson Dobb '24
Ruby Muehlenz '25
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed B 10 10 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 108 Frannie Harbold '27
Annabelle Rohe '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroon1122334455
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed2233445566
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed3344556677
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed4455667799
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed556677991010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroon66779910101111
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed77991010111111
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed99101011111122
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed10101111112233
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed111111223344

Conditions — 05/06/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1020.9 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From SE (144°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine2.7 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1020.9 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.57 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →