2024 Capitol City Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing HS 28 22 50
2 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Yellow 42 20 62
3 West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 32 33 65
4 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 22 45 67
5 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue 43 30 73
6 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 54 22 76
7 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 51 33 84
8 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 18 68 86
9 Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School MS Mixed White 44 66 110
10 Okemos High School Okemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed 57 68 125
11 Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees MIXED 73 67 140
12 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 80 73 153
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 3 2 4 1 2 3 3 18 Lj Nykamp '25
Bryson Chrisman '29
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 1 1 2 7 1 5 5 22 Payden Pittman '24
Logan Thien '25
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing HS 4 6 3 2 9 2 2 28 Michael Cyrul '24
Colin Fitzgerald '26
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 5 3 1 10 7 1 RDG 32 Amelia Traver '24
Carson Dobb '24
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Yellow 8 10 5 8 6 4 1 42 Ryan Ellison '28 [1]
Brent Armstrong '25 [2-7]
Brent Armstrong '25 [1]
Ryan Ellison '28 [2-7]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue 12 5 6 5 3 6 6 43 Bobby Cooper '27 [1-7]
Ryan Ridgeway '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Elsa Leal '26 [3-4, 7]
Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School MS Mixed White 2 7 10 4 5 7 9 44 Lila Torresen '25 [1-7]
Ani Hough '24 [1-2]
Jackson Donner '29 [3-7]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 7 8 9 6 4 9 8 51 Charlie Vink '27
Alexis Twa '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 11 9 11 3 8 8 4 54 Winston Hegg '26
Simon Hegg '24
Okemos High School Okemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed 6 4 8 9 10 10 10 57 Blake Glazer '27
Maia Lodise '28
Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees MIXED 9 11 7 11 12 11 12 73 Cara Falkowski '24
Austin Kovalchick '28
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 10 12 12 12 11 12 11 80 Daniel Kotsekon '26
Deverick Bails '29
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Yellow 6 6 1 1 1 2 3 20 Jack Armstrong '25
Sean Ellison '25
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing HS 1 5 3 5 3 1 4 22 Clayton Debruyn '26
William Quick-Severin '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 3 1 RDG RDG 2 8 2 22 Andrew Roeder '26
Isley Moshier '25
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue 4 4 5 3 4 4 6 30 Aarush Kapur '25
Erin Degrazia '27
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 2 2 7 6 5 6 5 33 Cole Blum '27
Elsie Torresen '27
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 8 7 2 2 10 3 1 33 Cameron Bert '26 [1-7]
Asher Albers Contant '26 [1-2, 5]
Henrik Bauman '27 [3-4, 6-7]
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 7 3 8 8 7 5 7 45 Joshua Hacker '24
Parker Bonney '27
Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School MS Mixed White 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 66 Brady Wallace '27 [1-4]
Ani Hough '24 [5-7]
Lucy Herlein '25 [1-4]
Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees MIXED 11 9 10 7 11 7 12 67 Owen Krause '25 [1, 3]
Owen Watkins '30 [2, 4-7]
Owen Watkins '30 [1, 3]
Owen Krause '25 [2, 4-7]
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 5 11 6 DNS 12 DSQ 8 68 Olive Mcgough '27
Isaac Eklov '27
Okemos High School Okemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed 12 8 DNF 10 6 9 10 68 Logan Miceli '27 [1-7]
David Catarino '29 [1-2]
Henry Breschback '28 [3-7]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 9 12 11 11 8 11 11 73 Toby Smart '25
Finn Allen '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2022 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Bath High SchoolBath High School Fighting Bees MIXED1133557
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed2244668
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED Blue3355779
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing HS44668811
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed55779913
Mona Shores High SchoolMona Shores High School MS Mixed White6688111114
Okemos High SchoolOkemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed779913131
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed88111114142
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed11111414224
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black991313113
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED Yellow131311335
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed141422446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Bath High SchoolBath High School Fighting Bees MIXED2244666
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed3355777
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED Blue4466888
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing HS5577999
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed6688111111
Mona Shores High SchoolMona Shores High School MS Mixed White7799131313
Okemos High SchoolOkemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed881111141414
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed991313111
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed131311333
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black11111414222
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED Yellow141422444
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed1133555
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bath High School Bath High School Cara Falkowski '24 Austin Kovalchick '28
Fighting Bees MIXED Owen Krause '25 [1, 3]
Owen Watkins '30 [2, 4-7]
Owen Watkins '30 [1, 3]
Owen Krause '25 [2, 4-7]
Black River Public School Black River Public School Lj Nykamp '25 Bryson Chrisman '29
Mixed Olive Mcgough '27 Isaac Eklov '27
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Bobby Cooper '27 [1-7] Ryan Ridgeway '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Elsa Leal '26 [3-4, 7]
MIXED Blue Aarush Kapur '25 Erin Degrazia '27
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School Michael Cyrul '24 Colin Fitzgerald '26
East Lansing HS Clayton Debruyn '26 William Quick-Severin '26
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School Payden Pittman '24 Logan Thien '25
GH Blue Mixed Joshua Hacker '24 Parker Bonney '27
Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School Lila Torresen '25 [1-7] Ani Hough '24 [1-2]
Jackson Donner '29 [3-7]
MS Mixed White Brady Wallace '27 [1-4]
Ani Hough '24 [5-7]
Lucy Herlein '25 [1-4]
Okemos High School Okemos High School Blake Glazer '27 Maia Lodise '28
Okemos Puffins Mixed Logan Miceli '27 [1-7] David Catarino '29 [1-2]
Henry Breschback '28 [3-7]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Charlie Vink '27 Alexis Twa '26
Grey Mixed Cole Blum '27 Elsie Torresen '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Daniel Kotsekon '26 Deverick Bails '29
TCC Mixed Toby Smart '25 Finn Allen '29
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Winston Hegg '26 Simon Hegg '24
TCC Varsity Black Andrew Roeder '26 Isley Moshier '25
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Ryan Ellison '28 [1]
Brent Armstrong '25 [2-7]
Brent Armstrong '25 [1]
Ryan Ellison '28 [2-7]
MIXED Yellow Jack Armstrong '25 Sean Ellison '25
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Amelia Traver '24 Carson Dobb '24
Mixed Cameron Bert '26 [1-7] Asher Albers Contant '26 [1-2, 5]
Henrik Bauman '27 [3-4, 6-7]

Conditions — 04/20/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1021.0 hPa

Temperature

41°F
↑ 44°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.0 kn
avg  ·  max 11.8 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From WNW (284°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine4.3 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1021.0 hPa Snow0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Lansing Sailing Club: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lansing Sailing Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Lansing Sailing Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →