Cowtown Cattleman's Cup Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 2 29 29
2 Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 1 34 34
3 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings Blue 40 40
4 Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 3 44 44
5 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 1 45 45
6 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 2 51 51
7 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 3 52 52
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 2 2 3 3 1 6 5 2 3 2 2 29 Finn Messner '27
Sarah Hyland '28
Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 1 1 1 DNF 6 2 3 3 2 4 4 34 Colby Cox '28
Evie Hyland '27
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings Blue 3 5 2 7 1 1 4 1 DNS DNS 40 Mickey Valenti '25
Tyler Sabric '29
Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 3 4 2 4 4 5 4 1 4 DNS DNS 44 Eli Pfarrer '27
Luke Messner '28
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 1 6 7 1 3 4 6 DNS DNS 1 1 45 Alex Van Zanten '28
Kevin Van Horne '28
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 2 5 4 6 5 3 2 DNS DNS 5 5 51 Lilly Moody '26
Penelope Potter '29
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 3 7 6 5 2 DNS DNS 5 5 3 3 52 Christian Lopez '26
Max Boettcher '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Vikings 14455667788
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Vikings 2667788991111
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Vikings 3778899111144
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Vikings Blue5566778899
Unregistered-SEISAUnregistered-SEISA SEISA 1889911114455
Unregistered-SEISAUnregistered-SEISA SEISA 2991111445566
Unregistered-SEISAUnregistered-SEISA SEISA 3111144556677

Conditions — 05/11/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.5 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From E (94°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1015.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Fort Worth Boat Club: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.22 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.26
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−1.33 ± 0.39)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fort Worth Boat Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Fort Worth Boat Club: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →