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NYISA-NW All Girls Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Amherst Central High School Amherst Central High School Tigers 18 18
2 West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 1 28 28
3 Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Varsity 42 42
4 City Honors School City Honors School Centaurs 58 58
5 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 60 60
6 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 68 68
7 West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 2 76 76
8 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 91 91
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Amherst Central High School Amherst Central High School Tigers 1 1 1 1 4 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 18 Sabrina Starck '24
Jamie Starck '26
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 1 3 2 2 5 3 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 28 Juliana Lanz '26
Genevieve Heiermann '26
Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Varsity 2 4 7 2 1 7 2 3 3 5 3 3 42 Isabella Donovan '27
Josie Riley '27
City Honors School City Honors School Centaurs 7 3 5 3 6 5 7 7 4 3 4 4 58 Aniella Didomenico '26
Mia Rogalski '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 5 7 3 6 5 2 5 8 5 4 5 5 60 Siri Dubois '25
Annika Hedin '25
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 4 8 4 4 2 4 4 6 8 6 DNS DNS 68 Natalie Dunlap '24
Isabella Fukushima '24
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 2 6 5 6 7 7 6 8 5 7 7 6 6 76 Violet Richter '27
Susan Bondi '27
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 8 6 8 8 DNS DNS 6 4 6 DNF DNS DNS 91 Emma Malmstrom Jouannet '25
Hannah Dearman '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Amherst Central High SchoolAmherst Central High School Tigers181817171515161614141313
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks171715151616141413131212
City Honors SchoolCity Honors School Centaurs151516161414131312121111
Nardin AcademyNardin Academy Varsity161614141313121211111818
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 1141413131212111118181717
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 2131312121111181817171515
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles 1121211111818171715151616
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles 2111118181717151516161414
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Amherst Central High School Amherst Central High School Tigers Sabrina Starck '24 Jamie Starck '26
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks Natalie Dunlap '24 Isabella Fukushima '24
City Honors School City Honors School Centaurs Aniella Didomenico '26 Mia Rogalski '26
Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Varsity Isabella Donovan '27 Josie Riley '27
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 Siri Dubois '25 Annika Hedin '25
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 Emma Malmstrom Jouannet '25 Hannah Dearman '24
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 1 Juliana Lanz '26 Genevieve Heiermann '26
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 2 Violet Richter '27 Susan Bondi '27

Conditions — 04/21/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 44°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.2 kn
avg  ·  max 16.8 kn
Gusts to 32.5 kn
From WSW (254°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1017.4 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Buffalo Seminary: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.20)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.34
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 17% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Buffalo Seminary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Buffalo Seminary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →