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PYC #5 No Sunshine Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED 12 12
2 Avondale High School Avondale High School Mixed Red 21 21
3 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue MIXED 26 26
4 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Gold 29 29
5 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maroon 36 36
6 Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange 46 46
7 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Orange 54 54
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED 1 1 4 2 1 1 1 1 12 Sean Ellison '25
Andrew Wiand '25
Avondale High School Avondale High School Mixed Red 3 3 2 1 2 2 6 2 21 Aarush Kapur '25
Brigitte Chan '24
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue MIXED 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 26 Erin Degrazia '27
James He '27
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Gold 5 5 1 4 5 3 3 3 29 Ashwin Kesliker '26
Krish Reddy '26
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maroon 4 4 5 6 3 5 2 7 36 Luc Messner '27
Alexandra Hernandez '29
Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 46 Sydney Rosenberg '26 [1-2]
Isabella Elzon '27 [3-8]
Angelina Abdulnour '27 [1-2]
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Orange 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 54 Quinn Rolands '24
Henry Mcbrien '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Avondale High SchoolAvondale High School Mixed Red2828282828282828
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools MIXED2424242424242424
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools MIXED Maroon2323232323232323
Bloomfield Hills High SchoolBloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange2727272727272727
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue MIXED2525252525252525
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Orange3030303030303030
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED Gold1313131313131313
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Avondale High School Avondale High School Mixed Red Aarush Kapur '25 Brigitte Chan '24
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Sean Ellison '25 Andrew Wiand '25
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maroon Luc Messner '27 Alexandra Hernandez '29
Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange Sydney Rosenberg '26 [1-2]
Isabella Elzon '27 [3-8]		 Angelina Abdulnour '27 [1-2]
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue MIXED Erin Degrazia '27 James He '27
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Orange Quinn Rolands '24 Henry Mcbrien '26
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Gold Ashwin Kesliker '26 Krish Reddy '26

Conditions — 04/27/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1014.7 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.6 kn
avg  ·  max 16.0 kn
Gusts to 34.8 kn
From SSW (205°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine7.6 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1014.7 hPa Rain0.22 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Detroit Country Day: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.41 ± 0.31)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Detroit Country Day, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →