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Rock the New Year

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 8 8
2 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 10 10
3 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 11 11
4 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 14 14
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 DNF 1 1 1 8 Jackson Timberlake '27
Karoline Burroughs '26
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 1 3 3 3 10 Kade Johnston '26 [1-4]
Tristan Wagner '29 [1-2]
Michael Dawley '26 [3-4]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 OCS 2 2 2 11 Aidan Castle '25
Lane Burroughs '24
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 2 4 4 4 14 Jonah Grumme '26
Matthew Fasullo '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 126262626
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 27777
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 334343434
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 48718871887188718
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 Jackson Timberlake '27 Karoline Burroughs '26
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 Kade Johnston '26 [1-4] Tristan Wagner '29 [1-2]
Michael Dawley '26 [3-4]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 Jonah Grumme '26 Matthew Fasullo '26
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 Aidan Castle '25 Lane Burroughs '24

Conditions — 01/20/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1031.8 hPa

Temperature

37°F
↑ 42°F   ↓ 28°F
Feels like 27°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From N (9°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1031.8 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Stanislaus — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at St. Stanislaus in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →