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NYISA-SE Spring Fling Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 3 10 9 19
2 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 7 12 19
3 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 16 14 30
4 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 18 17 35
5 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 19 19 38
6 West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 2 22 18 40
7 West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 1 20 23 43
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 3 1 1 2 7 Josh Elliott '24
Matthew Hudi '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 3 2 3 2 3 10 Siri Dubois '25
Caroline Churchill '28
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 5 2 4 5 16 Matt Lefler '24
Hannah Dearman '24
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 5 6 6 18 Natalie Dunlap '24
Isabella Fukushima '24
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 6 6 3 4 19 Philipp Meyer '24
Nolan Lefler '25
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 1 7 7 5 1 20 Lola Tortora '28
Susan Bondi '27
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 2 4 4 7 7 22 Amelia Richter '25
Amelia Reidmiller '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 3 4 3 1 1 9 Jack Webb '29
Emma Malmstrom Jouannet '25
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 3 5 2 2 12 Lucio Moscati '27
Daniel Piazza '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 2 4 4 4 14 Avi Whitmore '29
Annika Hedin '25
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 7 1 6 3 17 Isabella Fukushima '24
Natalie Dunlap '24
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 2 1 6 5 6 18 Chase Werner '26
Daniel Tarlowski '25
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 5 2 7 5 19 Aiden Dearman '26
Tristan Taylor '26
West Irondequoit West Irondequoit Eagles 1 6 7 3 7 23 Matt Baker '26
James Milne '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks10101212
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 11133
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 22288
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 3881111
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders331010
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles 1111111
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles 2121222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks111111
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 12244
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 23388
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 310101212
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders881111
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles 1121222
West IrondequoitWest Irondequoit Eagles 21133

Conditions — 05/25/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1010.2 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.1 kn
Gusts to 21.2 kn
From SSW (194°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1010.2 hPa Rain0.29 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Southwestern Central: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.52 ± 0.37)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southwestern Central by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Southwestern Central: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →