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TC tier 3 April 27

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 5 11 16
2 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed 11 13 24
3 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 10 16 26
4 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 27 10 37
5 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 20 20 40
6 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 21 25 46
7 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 20 36 56
8 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 30 30 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 1 1 2 1 5 Amelia Traver '24
Cameron Bert '26
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 2 5 1 2 10 Lj Nykamp '25
Henrik Bauman '27
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed 3 2 3 3 11 Charlie Vink '27
Elsie Torresen '27
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 4 4 7 5 20 Gavin Yonker '24
Jackson Donner '29
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 5 3 6 6 20 Cole Blum '27 [1-4]
Lucy Herlein '25 [1-2]
Brady Wallace '27 [3-4]
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 7 6 4 4 21 Alex Reynolds '24
Camille Coffin '27
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 8 7 5 7 27 Andrew Twa '24
Logan Thien '25
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 6 8 8 8 30 Frannie Harbold '27
Adelyn Smits '29
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 3 1 3 3 10 Annalise Vink '29
Ani Hough '24
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 2 6 2 1 11 Matthew Tevelde '25
Isaac Eklov '27
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed 1 DNF 1 2 13 Nyle Eggert '24
Alexis Twa '26
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 5 2 5 4 16 Jonas Pearson '25
Bryson Chrisman '29
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 4 3 4 DNF 20 Joshua Hacker '24
Parker Bonney '27
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 6 4 6 DNS 25 Toby Smart '25
Deverick Bails '29
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 7 5 DNF DNF 30 Nickolaus Goodwin '26
Nathan Potvin '29
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed DNS DNS DNS DNS 36 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.290+0.29
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed881010
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed10101313
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed991212
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed12121414
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed13131616
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed14141717
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed161688
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed171799

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed991212
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed12121414
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed10101313
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed13131616
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed14141717
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed161688
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed171799
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed881010

Conditions — 04/27/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1007.0 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
18.2 kn
avg  ·  max 23.8 kn
Gusts to 46.1 kn
From SSW (205°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover70% Sunshine8.9 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1007.0 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.09 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →