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May2nd Fleet Race Friday

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 10 12 12
2 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 2 21 21
3 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 6 22 22
4 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 12 23 23
5 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 9 28 28
6 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 1 32 32
7 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 7 34 34
8 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 4 35 35
9 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 5 38 38
10 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 8 42 42
11 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 11 47 47
12 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 3 65 65
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 10 1 1 8 1 1 12 Jeremy Bullock '25
Nik Shumway '27
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 2 5 9 2 2 3 21 Ben Glennon '28
Leo Lothian '28
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 6 4 2 7 4 5 22 Claudia Bria '28
Leighton Kelley '28
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 12 2 3 1 10 7 23 Colin Macinnis '27
Nick Proudlove '27
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 9 3 8 5 6 6 28 Grayden Mott '25
Will Brooks '28
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 1 8 5 6 9 4 32 Elizabeth Spillane '28
Lara Proudlove '28
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 7 7 7 3 7 10 34 Madeleine Carr '27
Olivia Wadsworth '27
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 4 9 11 10 3 2 35 Maria Castle '25
Campbell Carr '25
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 5 11 10 4 5 8 38 Zach Lieberman-Wingerter '26
Yasha Chumak '28
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 8 10 4 9 8 11 42 Grady Gao '27
Tre Lorusso '27
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 11 6 6 OCS OCS 9 47 Eliza Corral '25
Hanna Anderson '26
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 65 Myles Olney '25
George Spalding '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 111111
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 101010101010
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 111111111111
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 121212121212
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 222222
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 333333
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 444444
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 555555
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 666666
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 777777
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 888888
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 999999

Conditions — 05/02/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From SSW (197°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover60% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1012.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tabor Academy: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.32 ± 0.37)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tabor Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Tabor Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →