NYISA -NW Spring Fleet Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 12 8 20
2 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 17 7 24
3 Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Gators 8 21 29
4 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 19 19 38
5 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 19 20 39
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Gators 3 1 2 1 1 8 Isabella Donovan '27
Olivia Malic '28
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 4 2 1 2 3 12 Alex Emblidge '29
David Romanowich '25
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 5 3 3 4 2 17 Duncan Jorgenson '28
Emmett Benedicto '28
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 1 4 5 5 4 19 Matthew Murad '26
Cameron Willett '28
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 5 4 3 5 19 Lucio Moscati '27
Henrey Silvestri '28
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 1 2 1 2 7 Levi Mayer '28
Sophie Kimelberg '26
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 2 2 1 2 1 8 Jack Riley '25
No Show
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 4 3 3 5 4 19 Daniel Piazza '26
Read Boccacci '27
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 3 4 5 3 5 20 Charlie Marynowski '26
No Show
Nardin Academy Nardin Academy Gators 5 5 4 4 3 21 Clara Riley '29
Josie Riley '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 111111
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 222222
Nardin AcademyNardin Academy Gators33333
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings44444
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders55555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 111111
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 222222
Nardin AcademyNardin Academy Gators33333
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings44444
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders55555

Conditions — 04/12/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1020.5 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 47°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 6.0 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From N (355°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine0.9 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1020.5 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Canisius: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.61)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.47
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−1.85 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.61 means a rating gap counts about 53% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Canisius by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Canisius, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →