| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Garfield High School | Bulldogs | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 6–4 |
| 5 |  |
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | 5–5 |
| 6 |  |
Port Angeles High School | Roughriders | 4–6 |
| 7 |  |
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | 4–7 |
| 8 |  |
Ingraham High School | Rams | 3–7 |
| 9 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 3–7 |
| 10 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 2–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,148 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 18 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.534 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.10 ± 0.58: a typical event, more orderly than 34% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Central Kitsap High School | 1.73 | 2.98 | 4–2 | 2.7 | +1.25 | 0.9 | 25% |
| 6 | Port Angeles High School | 0.36 | 0.75 | 3–4 | 2.6 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2 | Bainbridge High School | 3.18 | 3.04 | 4–1 | 4.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 7 | Bellarmine Preparatory School | -0.57 | -0.84 | 1–5 | 1.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 3 | Gig Harbor High School | 1.92 | 1.48 | 3–2 | 3.3 | −0.44 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 5 | North Kitsap High School | 1.45 | 0.51 | 3–4 | 4.1 | −0.94 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Burbank | Central Kitsap High School | 0.17 | 1.87 | 2–1 | 1.1 | +1.70 | 0.8 | 31% |
| Charlie Kasten | Port Angeles High School | 0.28 | 0.67 | 3–4 | 2.6 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 52% |
| Andrew Corson | Port Angeles High School | -0.12 | 0.27 | 3–4 | 2.6 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 52% |
| Gretchen Fiscus | Bainbridge High School | 0.70 | 0.56 | 4–1 | 4.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Daniel Chapman | Bainbridge High School | 1.04 | 0.91 | 4–1 | 4.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Alex Cain | Bellarmine Preparatory School | -0.41 | -0.68 | 1–5 | 1.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Skylar Smith | Bellarmine Preparatory School | -0.15 | -0.42 | 1–5 | 1.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Tristian Filyes | Gig Harbor High School | 0.43 | -0.00 | 3–2 | 3.3 | −0.44 | 0.1 | 81% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tides | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Roughriders | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Dogfish | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Lions | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Tides | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Roughriders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Lions | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Tides | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Roughriders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Lions | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Dogfish | 2-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tides | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Roughriders | 2-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Tides | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Lions | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Dogfish | 3-4-5 | def. | |
Tides | 1-2-6 DSQ |
| 35 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Roughriders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Spartans | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tides | 2-3-6 |
| 39 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Tides | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Roughriders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 49 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tides | 3-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Dogfish | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Lions | 2-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 52 | |
Tides | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 53 | |
Dogfish | def. | |
Roughriders | ||
| 54 | |
Rams | def. | |
Cougars | ||
| 55 | |
Cougars | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 56 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 57 | |
Cougars | def. | |
Tides | ||
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Daniel Chapman '27 Gretchen Fiscus '26 Suraj Siddaiah '26 |
Gabrielle Jelic '27 Owen Willhoit '28 Atlas Montgomery '27 Elijah Owen '28 Emma Jackson '26 |
|
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | Brent Hu '25 Charlie Yando '28 Tristian Filyes '28 |
Chloe Hedge-Pollock '25 Ryan Wilkins '27 Aiden Spiker '28 |
|
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | Elijah Dekker '26 Keller Matthews '26 Lucas Burbank '26 Maya Zander '26 |
Liem Webb Magallanez '27 Tyler Jenne '27 John Tabone '28 Maya Zander '26 Lucas Burbank '26 |
|
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | Avery Lawley '25 Ian Anthony '27 Kaisen Olkonen '27 Victor Gehring '26 |
Eli Carlson '28 Sadie Evans '27 Amber Faragalli '26 Lynne Tabone '25 |
|
Port Angeles High School | Roughriders | Andrew Corson '25 Caelan Prater '27 Charlie Kasten '26 |
Benedict Davids '27 William Weidenhoeft '28 Isaac Anderson '27 Serenity Romo '25 |
|
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | Alex Cain '28 Brody Colbert '27 Skylar Smith '29 |
Finnegan Drennan '28 Maxwell Garriott '29 Ava Schulz '29 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
