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TC tier 3 April 26

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 19 24 43
2 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold 31 12 43
3 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 13 34 47
4 East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing ATMIXED 14 45 59
5 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 36 24 60
6 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 37 24 61
7 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mid School 46 46 92
8 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 56 45 101
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 1 1 3 1 1 4 2 13 Charlie Vink '27
Jackson Donner '29
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing ATMIXED 2 4 1 3 2 1 1 14 Clayton Debruyn '26
Blake Glazer '27
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 4 2 2 2 4 2 3 19 Max Eggert '26
Anderson Vickers '29
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold 6 3 4 5 3 5 5 31 Daniel Kotsekon '26
Camille Coffin '27
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 3 6 5 4 7 7 4 36 Henrik Bauman '27 [1-4]
Olive Mcgough '27 [5-7]
Olive Mcgough '27 [1-4]
Henrik Bauman '27 [5-7]
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 5 5 6 6 5 3 7 37 Winston Hegg '26
Myles Gross '29
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mid School 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 46 Colin Fitzgerald '26
Emma Cain '29
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 56 Nickolaus Goodwin '26
Owen Seah '29
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold 2 1 3 3 1 1 1 12 Andrew Roeder '26
Frannie Harbold '27
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 1 2 4 4 3 8 2 24 Isaac Eklov '27 [1-7]
Bryson Chrisman '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Sydney Giles '29 [3-4, 7]
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 4 5 1 1 2 2 DSQ 24 Toby Smart '25
Deverick Bails '29
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 5 3 2 2 4 3 5 24 Annalise Vink '29
Parker Bonney '27
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 3 4 DSQ 5 5 4 4 34 Brady Wallace '27
Liam Satterfield '29
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing ATMIXED 6 8 5 6 6 7 7 45 Savana Harte '26
Nora Smyka '29
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 7 6 7 7 7 5 6 45 Adelyn Smits '29
Skylar Dykhuis-Peyton '29
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mid School 8 7 6 8 8 6 3 46 Evan Dockter '29
John Streit '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing ATMIXED15151717191921
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed16161818202014
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed17171919212115
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed18182020141416
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC black and gold19192121151517
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mid School21211515171719
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed20201414161618

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing ATMIXED16161818202014
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed17171919212115
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed18182020141416
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed19192121151517
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC black and gold20201414161618
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mid School14141616181820
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed21211515171719

Conditions — 04/26/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1025.3 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.1 kn
avg  ·  max 12.2 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From N (354°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1025.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.37 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →