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TC tier 3 may 10

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 11 14 25
2 Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School MS Mixed White 21 16 37
3 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 20 36 56
4 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 39 25 64
5 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black 37 37 74
6 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 50 40 90
7 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 58 59 117
8 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold 62 64 126
9 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mid School 65 69 134
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 Matthew Tevelde '26
James Tevelde '29
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 2 1 3 4 2 4 2 2 20 Charlie Vink '27
Alexis Twa '26
Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School MS Mixed White 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 4 21 Lila Torresen '25
Lucas Williams '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black 4 5 7 6 4 3 5 3 37 Anders Lyons '26
Will Velek '28
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 7 3 4 3 6 5 6 5 39 Brooklyn Verplank '25
Jackson Donner '29
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 5 DNS 9 5 5 6 4 6 50 Toby Smart '25
Deverick Bails '29
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 8 7 6 7 7 9 7 7 58 Brady Viginski '28
Nickolaus Goodwin '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold 6 6 5 8 9 8 DNF DNS 62 Camille Coffin '27
Andrew Roeder '26
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mid School 9 8 8 9 8 7 8 8 65 Evan Dockter '29
John Streit '28
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 1 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 14 Cameron Bert '26
Henrik Bauman '27
Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School MS Mixed White 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 16 Elsie Torresen '27
Lucas Williams '26
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 2 1 3 4 5 5 3 2 25 Charlie Molesta '28
Parker Bonney '27
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 4 4 6 5 6 3 5 3 36 Brady Wallace '27
Liam Satterfield '29
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black 5 5 5 2 4 4 6 6 37 Will Velek '28
Owen Seah '29
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 6 6 4 6 3 6 4 5 40 Daniel Kotsekon '26
Adelyn Smits '29
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 7 7 9 7 7 7 8 7 59 Finn Allen '29
Myles Gross '29
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold 9 9 7 8 8 8 7 8 64 Winston Hegg '26
Skyler Dykhuis-Peyton '29
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mid School 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 69 Mario Aristeo '27 [1-8]
Sadie Melenyk '29 [1-2]
Beckett Hawes '29 [3-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed2121191917171515
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed2020181816161414
Mona Shores High SchoolMona Shores High School MS Mixed White1919171715151313
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed1818161614142121
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed1717151513132020
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC black and gold1616141421211919
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC gold and black1515131320201818
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mid School1313202018181616
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed1414212119191717

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed2020181816161414
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed1919171715151313
Mona Shores High SchoolMona Shores High School MS Mixed White1818161614142121
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed1717151513132020
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed1616141421211919
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC black and gold1515131320201818
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC gold and black1414212119191717
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mid School2121191917171515
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed1313202018181616

Conditions — 05/10/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1023.6 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.1 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 25.7 kn
From N (358°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1023.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →