Oak Harbor High School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.37 (fleet -0.58) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–8 (11%) as crew 0–12 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | — | 0–12 |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 1–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 1–20 against 3.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 NWISA Team Race Championships | crew | 0.04 | -2.96 | 0–12 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.0 | >99% |
| 2025-04-12 | NWISA Gold Team Race Quals | skipper | -0.42 | -1.26 | 1–8 | 1.7 | −0.83 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Silver Ranking Regatta #2 | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.2 | -1.41 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| R2D2 Invitational | Crew | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| NWISA Orcas Regional Fleet Race | Crew | A | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Chase Johnson |  Anacortes High School |
'27 |
| ISSA | Chase Johnson |  Orcas High School |
'27 |
| ISSA | Chase Johnson |  Capital High School |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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