Mercy High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10 (fleet 0.17) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 0–14 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 0–14 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 0–14 against 0.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-22 | MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | crew | 0.31 | -2.69 | 0–14 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| NYISA-NW Spring Fleet Champs | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 1.22 |
| NYISA-NW All Girls Qualifier | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.3 | -0.72 |
| Fall 2017 Season | |||||
| PCISA Girls Invitational | Skipper | B | 9 | 17.6 | -1.33 |
| NYISA-NW Rochester Race Night | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.0 | 0.24 |
| NYISA-NW Rochester Fall Race Night 3 | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.0 | 0.46 |
| Spring 2017 Season | |||||
| MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| MASSA Mallory Qualifier | Crew | B | 8 | 17.0 | — |
| Fall 2016 Season | |||||
| NYISA-NW Wed Night Race Day 10/12 | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.8 | -2.03 |
| PCISA Girls Invitational Regatta | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.9 | -0.24 |
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| New York State Champs | Skipper | B | 1 | 1.0 | -0.46 |
| 2016 MASSA Spring Silver Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.6 | -0.51 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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