NYISA-NW All Girls Qualifier

HostRochester Yacht Club
Date04/28/2018
TypeLeague Championship
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Pirates 1	Pirates 1	12	12
2	Buffalo Seminary	Red-Tailed Hawks 1	16	16
3	Buffalo Seminary	Red-Tailed Hawks 2	24	24
4	Harley Allendale Columbia	Wolves	27	27
5	Mercy High School	Monarchs 4	30	30
6	Pittsford High School	Knights	32	32
7	Fairport High School	Red Raiders	40	40
8	Pirates 2	Pirates 2	46	46
9	Mercy High School	Monarchs 3	50	50
10	Mercy High School	Monarchs 2	59	59
11	Mercy High School	Monarchs 1	66	66
12	Webster Central Schools	Webster Central s 2	67	67
13	Webster Central Schools	Webster Central s 1	77	77

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Pirates 1	Pirates 1	3	3	2	1	2	1	12
Buffalo Seminary	Red-Tailed Hawks 1	4	1	5	3	1	2	16	Grace Cannon '19 Sydeny Adams '18
Buffalo Seminary	Red-Tailed Hawks 2	2	2	8	6	3	3	24	Molly Doyle '18 Madeline Love '19
Harley Allendale Columbia	Wolves	1	4	6	4	6	6	27	Erin Szuromi '21 Emmy Kaza '21
Mercy High School	Monarchs 4	7	7	1	2	8	5	30	Sarah Chew '18 Emily Davis '18
Pittsford High School	Knights	6	5	3	7	4	7	32	Lena Fine '21 Sierra Bornheim '20
Fairport High School	Red Raiders	8	6	9	8	5	4	40	Sydney Buckman '18 Diana Spencer '18
Pirates 2	Pirates 2	11	8	7	5	7	8	46
Mercy High School	Monarchs 3	5	9	4	12	11	9	50	Grace Taylor '18 Bridget Taylor '20
Mercy High School	Monarchs 2	9	10	11	9	10	10	59	Emily Richardson '21 Emily Davis '18
Mercy High School	Monarchs 1	12	11	12	11	9	11	66	Clementine Matzky '21 Abigail Hentschke '18
Webster Central Schools	Webster Central s 2	10	12	10	10	12	13	67	Chloe Byrts '20 No Show
Webster Central Schools	Webster Central s 1	13	13	13	13	13	12	77	Sara Flowerday '18 No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1	2	2	2	2	2	2
Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2	3	3	3	3	3	3
Fairport High School Red Raiders	13	13	13	13	13	13
Harley Allendale Columbia Wolves	6	6	6	6	6	6
Mercy High School Monarchs 1	8	8	8	8	8	8
Mercy High School Monarchs 2	9	9	9	9	9	9
Mercy High School Monarchs 3	10	10	10	10	10	10
Mercy High School Monarchs 4	11	11	11	11	11	11
Pittsford High School Knights	5	5	5	5	5	5
Pirates 1 Pirates 1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Pirates 2 Pirates 2	4	4	4	4	4	4
Webster Central Schools Webster Central s 1	7	7	7	7	7	7
Webster Central Schools Webster Central s 2	12	12	12	12	12	12

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Buffalo Seminary	Red-Tailed Hawks 1	Grace Cannon '19	Sydeny Adams '18
Buffalo Seminary	Red-Tailed Hawks 2	Molly Doyle '18	Madeline Love '19
Fairport High School	Red Raiders	Sydney Buckman '18	Diana Spencer '18
Harley Allendale Columbia	Wolves	Erin Szuromi '21	Emmy Kaza '21
Mercy High School	Monarchs 1	Clementine Matzky '21	Abigail Hentschke '18
Mercy High School	Monarchs 2	Emily Richardson '21	Emily Davis '18
Mercy High School	Monarchs 3	Grace Taylor '18	Bridget Taylor '20
Mercy High School	Monarchs 4	Sarah Chew '18	Emily Davis '18
Pittsford High School	Knights	Lena Fine '21	Sierra Bornheim '20
Webster Central Schools	Webster Central s 1	Sara Flowerday '18	No Show
Webster Central Schools	Webster Central s 2	Chloe Byrts '20	No Show

Conditions — 04/28/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 90% · Pressure 1009.0 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.0 kn

avg · max 10.2 kn

Gusts to 24.3 kn

From WNW (282°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine4.7 hrs Humidity90% Pressure1009.0 hPa Rain0.26 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Rochester Yacht Club: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.76 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rochester Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Rochester Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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