Cape Cod Academy '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.70 (fleet 2.72) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–9 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 18–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 18–9 against 15.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-21 | National Invitational Tournament (NIT) | skipper | 1.95 | 4.82 | 12–1 | 7.8 | +2.87 | 5.5 | 1% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 1.87 | 1.04 | 6–8 | 7.8 | −0.83 | 0.8 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| FIGAWI High school Invitational | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.7 | 1.53 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Sophia Peck |  Cornell University |
'26 |
| ISSA | Sophia Peck |  Tabor Academy |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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