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2009 Bryson Women's

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 15 27 42
2 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 18 25 43
3 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 30 14 44
4 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 17 29 46
5 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 37 26 63
6 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 39 37 76
7 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 43 38 81
8 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 60 58 118
9 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 58 62 120
10 Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 68 69 137
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 2 3 4 1 3 1 15 Eliza Richartz '13
Rebecca King '13
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 17 Ashley Hobson '13
Martha Davis '12
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 3 1 1 1 6 4 2 18 Hannah Tuson-Turner '11
Jaclyn Mcloughlin '10
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 5 7 6 5 2 1 4 30 Kelsey Rupp '12
Sydney Morical '12
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4 4 7 3 5 7 7 37 Keely Scates '12
Kimberly Tilton '11
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 6 5 5 8 4 6 5 39
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 7 8 4 6 7 5 6 43 Aubrey Toole '12
Erin Martin '11
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 9 6 8 9 8 9 9 58 Cara Kuhlman '11 [1-7]
Kasandra Easley '11 [1-6]
Marissa Paulling '11 [7]
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 8 9 9 7 9 8 10 60 Ashley Eberhard '11
Natalie Cardoso '13
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 68 Alyssa Aoki '12
Elizabeth Nihill '11
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 2 1 4 1 3 1 14 Emily Dahl '13
Christine Tatchell '10
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 5 3 2 5 2 1 7 25 Hanne Nagatani '13
Darla Baldwin '11
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4 4 4 3 3 2 6 26 Jessica Barhydt '10 [1-2, 5-6]
Morgane Renoir '12 [3-4, 7]
Morgane Renoir '12 [1-2, 5-6]
Jessica Barhydt '10 [3-4, 7]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 6 5 3 2 5 4 2 27 Katherine Lund '13
Megan Grove '10
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 1 5 7 7 5 3 29 Blair Johnston '11
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 7 7 6 1 6 6 4 37 Jennifer Lyons '12
Kathryn Schultz '10
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 3 6 7 6 4 7 5 38 Lauren Amery '12
Hannah (Hanh Ai) Nguyen Nguyen '09
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 58 Kellsy Panno '10 [1-4]
Janet Rumsey '13 [5-7]
Samantha Ortega '13 [1-2]
Christina Stege '14 [3-7]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 8 9 10 9 8 9 9 62 Jenna Barnes '10 [1-2, 5-7]
Marissa Paulling '11 [3-4]
Taryn Hull '11 [1-2, 5-7]
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 69 Jean D'Agostino '10 [1-7]
Lauren Mcnally '12 [1-4]
Alexa Pukall '11 [5-7]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Berkeley1133557
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers221010886
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows3355779
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Monterey Bay442210108
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks5577991
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans66442210
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal7799113
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters8866442
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego9911335
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos101088664

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Berkeley2244668
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers1199775
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows44668810
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Monterey Bay3311997
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks668810102
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans5533119
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal881010224
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters7755331
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego101022446
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos9977553

Conditions — 10/24/2009 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1016.1 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.6 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From WNW (298°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1016.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.45 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →