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North #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 43 33 76
2 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 52 62 114
3 Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 72 56 128
4 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester 44 108 152
5 Queen's University Queen's University Queen's 66 89 155
6 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 96 67 163
7 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 108 61 169
8 Webb Institute Webb Institute Webb Institute 110 84 194
9 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 84 111 195
10 University of Rochester University of Rochester U. Rochester 98 125 223
11 Ocean County College Ocean County College Ocean County 142 108 250
12 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Army 138 122 260
13 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer 154 166 320
14 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 159 176 335
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 1 9 2 2 1 7 2 3 5 2 3 2 43 Patrick Kana '12
Jennifer Crupnick '10
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester 1 3 1 1 4 6 2 4 6 6 3 4 3 44 Justin Coplan '?? [1-13]
Roy Ingham '13 [1-2]
Chelsea Lahna '11 [3-10, 13]
John Handel '12 [11-12]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 5 2 8 1 2 1 1 7 1 6 9 7 52 Philip Alley '12 [1-8]
Vincent Andrews '11 [9-13]
Colleen Cozzens '12 [1-8]
Brett Allen '13 [9-13]
Queen's University Queen's University Queen's 9 6 6 3 3 10 5 3 1 4 5 6 5 66 No Show
Sarah Bethune '19
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 6 7 7 4 6 8 4 9 10 2 1 2 6 72 Scott Layton '11
Morgan Beals '13
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 7 4 8 6 5 12 6 13 8 3 10 1 1 84 Tyler Steel '13
Chris Palmieri '11
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 5 9 3 5 DSQ 9 9 5 4 7 4 10 11 96 Raphael Cattan '15
Kerry Morrison '11
University of Rochester University of Rochester U. Rochester 8 8 5 11 7 5 3 8 5 14 7 8 9 98 Geoff Williams '11 [1-13]
Sarah Young '13 [1-6]
Anne Elise Parmentier '12 [7-13]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 10 11 11 12 9 4 11 10 2 10 9 5 4 108 Gary Taylor '10
Francois Conde-Jahn '13
Webb Institute Webb Institute Webb Institute 3 2 4 7 12 3 13 6 12 13 14 7 14 110 Nathan Fast '14 [1-10]
Schuyler Needham '12 [11-13]
Casey Brown '16 [1-10]
Kyle Manis '12 [11-13]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Army 11 14 12 9 11 7 8 7 11 12 11 13 12 138 Erik Olsen '10
Benjamin Frost '10
Ocean County College Ocean County College Ocean County 13 10 13 13 8 13 12 11 9 8 13 11 8 142 Holden Muehleisen '10
Autumn Hoover '12
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer 12 13 10 14 10 11 10 12 14 11 12 12 13 154 Alexander Mattern '10
Christopher Kerr '12
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 14 12 14 10 13 14 14 14 13 9 8 14 10 159 Aaron Chapin '11
Andrew Cebulski '12
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 8 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 3 8 1 33 Sam Padnos '11
Aimee Kelleher '13
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 7 6 4 2 10 3 6 4 1 6 2 1 4 56 Nathan Swift '11
Chase Jackson '13
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 2 1 4 12 4 10 5 7 3 5 3 3 61 Kevin Reilly '11
Aaron Gottlieb '13
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 5 3 3 2 5 8 2 3 4 9 6 11 62 Blair Davis '10
Emma Lejeune '13
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 4 3 6 10 3 8 5 3 5 2 8 4 6 67 Brendan Hannon '11
Marie Johnson '12
Webb Institute Webb Institute Webb Institute 10 7 5 11 5 12 9 7 2 5 4 5 2 84 Schuyler Needham '12 [1-8]
Sean Murphy '13 [9-13]
Robert Walling '12 [1-8]
Queen's University Queen's University Queen's 12 9 8 7 9 2 2 8 OCS 7 1 2 7 89 Peter Soosalu '12
Nicolas Trottier '11
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester 3 4 9 8 11 9 4 10 9 10 12 9 10 108 Roy Ingham '13 [1-8, 11-13]
Blake Howell '11 [9-10]
Kelly Farraro '11 [1-8]
Roy Ingham '13 [9-10]
John Handel '12 [11-13]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Ocean County 6 10 7 9 4 7 11 9 6 9 7 11 12 108 Derek Douglas '13
Emily Mccarthy '13
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 5 8 12 5 8 6 3 11 OCS 12 6 12 8 111 Rudy Normann '13
Kyle Crandall '12
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Army 13 13 11 6 7 10 14 6 8 8 11 10 5 122 Alexander Lovo '11
Peter Hudelson '11
University of Rochester University of Rochester U. Rochester 9 11 10 12 6 11 7 12 10 11 10 7 9 125 Nicholas Troche '11 [1-13]
Jessica King '10 [1-4]
Christopher Stair '12 [5-13]
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer 11 12 13 14 14 13 12 14 11 13 13 13 13 166 Kevin Petrikas '13
Alex Appleman '11
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 14 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 12 14 14 14 14 176 Jason Sinclair '13
Sean Orzolek '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Army1133557799111113
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders224466881010121214
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions33557799111113131
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red4466881010121214142
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons55779911111313113
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen6688101012121414224
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners77991111131311335
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers8810101212141422446
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Ocean County99111113131133557
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Queen's1010121214142244668
Rensselaer Polytechnic InstituteRensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer121214142244668810
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Rochester11111313113355779
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester U. Rochester1313113355779911
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Webb Institute141422446688101012

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Army224466881010121214
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders33557799111113131
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions4466881010121214142
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red55779911111313113
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons6688101012121414224
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen77991111131311335
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners8810101212141422446
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers99111113131133557
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Ocean County1010121214142244668
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Queen's11111313113355779
Rensselaer Polytechnic InstituteRensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer1313113355779911
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Rochester121214142244668810
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester U. Rochester141422446688101012
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Webb Institute1133557799111113
School / Team SkipperCrew
Colgate University Colgate University Scott Layton '11 Morgan Beals '13
Raiders Nathan Swift '11 Chase Jackson '13
Columbia University Columbia University Raphael Cattan '15 Kerry Morrison '11
Lions Brendan Hannon '11 Marie Johnson '12
Cornell University Cornell University Philip Alley '12 [1-8]
Vincent Andrews '11 [9-13]		 Colleen Cozzens '12 [1-8]
Brett Allen '13 [9-13]
Big Red Blair Davis '10 Emma Lejeune '13
Drexel University Drexel University Aaron Chapin '11 Andrew Cebulski '12
Dragons Jason Sinclair '13 Sean Orzolek '14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Patrick Kana '12 Jennifer Crupnick '10
Statesmen Sam Padnos '11 Aimee Kelleher '13
Ocean County College Ocean County College Holden Muehleisen '10 Autumn Hoover '12
Ocean County Derek Douglas '13 Emily Mccarthy '13
Queen's University Queen's University No Show Sarah Bethune '19
Queen's Peter Soosalu '12 Nicolas Trottier '11
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Alexander Mattern '10 Christopher Kerr '12
Rensselaer Kevin Petrikas '13 Alex Appleman '11
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Justin Coplan '?? [1-13] Roy Ingham '13 [1-2]
Chelsea Lahna '11 [3-10, 13]
John Handel '12 [11-12]
Rochester Roy Ingham '13 [1-8, 11-13]
Blake Howell '11 [9-10]		 Kelly Farraro '11 [1-8]
Roy Ingham '13 [9-10]
John Handel '12 [11-13]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Tyler Steel '13 Chris Palmieri '11
Privateers Rudy Normann '13 Kyle Crandall '12
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Gary Taylor '10 Francois Conde-Jahn '13
Mariners Kevin Reilly '11 Aaron Gottlieb '13
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Erik Olsen '10 Benjamin Frost '10
Army Alexander Lovo '11 Peter Hudelson '11
University of Rochester University of Rochester Geoff Williams '11 [1-13] Sarah Young '13 [1-6]
Anne Elise Parmentier '12 [7-13]
U. Rochester Nicholas Troche '11 [1-13] Jessica King '10 [1-4]
Christopher Stair '12 [5-13]
Webb Institute Webb Institute Nathan Fast '14 [1-10]
Schuyler Needham '12 [11-13]		 Casey Brown '16 [1-10]
Kyle Manis '12 [11-13]
Webb Institute Schuyler Needham '12 [1-8]
Sean Murphy '13 [9-13]		 Robert Walling '12 [1-8]

Conditions — 10/17/2009 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1020.3 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.7 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From NNE (17°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine7.3 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1020.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn · N 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →