Navigate

Laser North #1

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Samuel Blouin '12 1 6 2 4 1 4 2 3 4 12 2 41
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Sam Padnos '11 7 10 5 1 2 1 1 6 8 3 1 45
Cornell University Cornell University Philip Alley '12 6 8 1 2 3 2 6 5 6 13 6 58
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Timothy Zacher '13 2 13 3 3 5 7 8 9 13 11 5 79
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Randall Hartranft '12 10 12 9 11 4 10 5 2 9 6 4 82
Queen's University Queen's University Evert Mclaughlin '12 4 1 14 13 7 13 10 1 15 2 3 83
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Ian Holtzworth '13 8 2 13 7 13 5 7 7 14 1 11 88
Queen's University Queen's University Matthew Ryder '12 5 4 15 17 6 6 13 4 2 9 BKD 89
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Evan Siepert '13 15 3 4 5 14 17 3 8 7 5 8 89
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Eric Horrocks '11 12 5 8 8 8 11 12 BKD 1 15 9 98
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Matthew Schoene '15 14 15 11 14 12 9 4 10 3 14 10 116
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Ike Babbitt '11 13 11 7 6 10 18 14 15 17 4 7 122
Queen's University Queen's University Austin Stein '17 17 9 6 16 9 3 9 12 18 17 13 129
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Shawn Murray '12 3 7 19 9 15 12 17 14 10 19 14 139
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Alex Wood '13 9 14 17 15 18 16 15 11 11 7 16 149
Cornell University Cornell University Wade Christensen '14 11 16 10 10 11 19 16 17 16 10 15 151
Cornell University Cornell University Michael Rivlin '13 16 17 16 18 17 14 11 13 12 8 12 154
Penn State University Penn State University Michael Scruggs '11 18 19 18 12 16 8 18 16 5 18 18 166
Columbia University Columbia University William Ford '13 19 18 12 19 19 15 19 18 19 16 17 191
Royal Military Royal Military Royal Military DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 231
Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Royal MilitaryRoyal Military Royal Military2019181716151413121110

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  20 boats · 11 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Samuel Blouin '12Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 211/112.553.64+1.1066th → 93rd3.83%3.7 / 7.3
2Sam Padnos '11Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 111/112.513.46+0.9465th → 89th3.09%4.1 / 7.5
3Philip Alley '12Cornell University Big Red 111/111.883.06+1.1747th → 83rd4.64%5.3 / 9.2
4Timothy Zacher '13Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 311/111.982.38+0.4151st → 61st0.725%7.2 / 8.8
5Randall Hartranft '12SUNY Maritime College Privateers 111/112.102.35+0.2555th → 60th0.337%7.5 / 8.6
6Evert Mclaughlin '12Queen's University Gaels 111/111.15u2.12+0.9725th → 56th3.411%7.5 / 11.3
7Ian Holtzworth '13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 211/112.112.07−0.0456th → 54th0.046%8.0 / 8.6
8Evan Siepert '13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 311/111.401.95+0.5534th → 50th1.122%8.1 / 10.5
9Matthew Ryder '12Queen's University Gaels 211/111.15u1.89+0.7525th → 48th1.825%9.3 / 11.3
10Eric Horrocks '11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 111/111.881.97+0.0947th → 51st0.060%10.0 / 9.4
11Matthew Schoene '15SUNY Maritime College Privateers 311/111.591.54−0.0539th → 38th0.060%10.5 / 10.0
12Ike Babbitt '11Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons11/112.021.07−0.9553rd → 25th4.479%11.1 / 8.9
13Austin Stein '17Queen's University Gaels 311/11-0.011.10+1.126th → 25th4.216%11.7 / 14.4
14Shawn Murray '12SUNY Maritime College Privateers 211/112.270.44−1.8359th → 13th17.293%12.6 / 8.2
15Alex Wood '13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 411/110.080.85+0.777th → 19th2.238%13.5 / 14.2
16Wade Christensen '14Cornell University Big Red 311/110.260.70+0.4510th → 17th0.748%13.7 / 13.7
17Michael Rivlin '13Cornell University Big Red 211/111.120.64−0.4825th → 17th1.180%14.0 / 11.4
18Michael Scruggs '11Penn State University11/111.10u-0.21−1.3125th → 4th7.390%15.1 / 11.5
19William Ford '13Columbia University11/11-0.29-1.12−0.834th → 1st1.782%17.4 / 15.1

Conditions — 09/11/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1015.4 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.1 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From NNE (20°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1015.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →