ICSA Women's Singlehandeds

Women's
HostCollege Sailing
Date11/04/2011
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Boston College	Anne Haeger '12	34
2	Yale University	Claire Dennis '13	69
3	Yale University	Emily Billing '13	77
4	Brown University	Sky Adams '14	104
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	108
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Arielle Delisser '14	111
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Hall '15	122
8	College of Charleston	Corey Hall '12	125
9	Brown University	Jessica Claflin '13	125
10	Stanford University	Kaitlyn Baab '15	131
11	Stanford University	Molly Mckinney '14	140
12	Hampton University	Giuditta Di Laghi '16	147
13	Michigan State University	Lauren-Alyssa Knoles '11	161
14	University of South Florida	Dominique Wright '15	186
15	Western Washington University	Erika Vranizan '12	212
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Rebekka Urbina '12	226
17	University of Michigan	Ellen Dubois '14	240
18	University of Minnesota	Natalie Sinn '12	249

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	TOT
Boston College	Anne Haeger '12	1	12	4	2	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	1	1	1	3	34
Yale University	Claire Dennis '13	3	6	15	6	2	5	2	3	5	5	3	3	7	3	1	69
Yale University	Emily Billing '13	4	10	5	1	3	12	9	7	6	2	1	10	3	2	2	77
Brown University	Sky Adams '14	14	11	2	10	5	6	7	10	1	6	9	6	2	6	9	104
U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	6	13	12	8	10	8	5	11	3	3	8	8	4	4	5	108
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Arielle Delisser '14	11	15	14	5	7	4	4	4	8	4	4	14	8	5	4	111
U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Hall '15	7	2	3	4	4	13	10	9	4	11	17	2	11	9	16	122
College of Charleston	Corey Hall '12	5	3	6	3	14	2	8	12	13	9	11	11	5	13	10	125
Brown University	Jessica Claflin '13	13	1	1	13	8	10	3	5	10	7	16	5	9	10	14	125
Stanford University	Kaitlyn Baab '15	2	7	7	11	12	15	6	6	9	8	7	4	14	8	15	131
Stanford University	Molly Mckinney '14	15	5	11	12	9	7	14	2	14	10	5	16	6	7	7	140
Hampton University	Giuditta Di Laghi '16	8	9	9	18	6	14	11	8	7	14	6	7	12	12	6	147
Michigan State University	Lauren-Alyssa Knoles '11	10	4	10	9	17	3	12	13	11	13	15	9	10	14	11	161
University of South Florida	Dominique Wright '15	12	17	13	7	11	9	13	15	12	12	14	13	15	15	8	186
Western Washington University	Erika Vranizan '12	9	14	18	15	13	17	15	16	16	17	10	12	16	11	13	212
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Rebekka Urbina '12	17	16	16	14	15	16	16	14	17	16	13	15	13	16	12	226
University of Michigan	Ellen Dubois '14	18	8	8	17	16	18	18	18	15	15	18	17	18	17	DNF	240
University of Minnesota	Natalie Sinn '12	16	18	17	16	18	11	17	17	DNF	18	12	18	17	18	17	249

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 18 boats · 15 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Anne Haeger '12	Boston College	15/15	3.11	4.84	+1.73	84th → 99th	10.0	<1%	2.3 / 6.1
2	Claire Dennis '13	Yale University Elis	15/15	2.41	3.38	+0.97	61st → 89th	4.2	3%	4.6 / 7.9
3	Emily Billing '13	Yale University Bulldogs	15/15	2.50	3.20	+0.70	63rd → 85th	2.4	10%	5.1 / 7.7
4	Sky Adams '14	Brown University Bears 1	15/15	2.19	2.65	+0.46	58th → 70th	1.1	23%	6.9 / 8.5
5	Marissa Lihan '14	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	15/15	2.10	2.64	+0.54	55th → 70th	1.6	24%	7.2 / 8.7
6	Arielle Delisser '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	15/15	2.34	2.44	+0.10	60th → 62nd	0.1	38%	7.4 / 8.2
7	Mary Hall '15	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	15/15	1.98	1.98	+0.00	51st → 51st	0.0	33%	8.1 / 9.1
8	Corey Hall '12	College of Charleston	15/15	2.27	2.13	−0.14	59th → 56th	0.1	53%	8.3 / 8.3
8	Jessica Claflin '13	Brown University Bears 2	15/15	1.96	2.09	+0.14	50th → 55th	0.1	40%	8.3 / 9.0
10	Kaitlyn Baab '15	Stanford University Cardinal 2	15/15	1.35	2.08	+0.73	31st → 54th	2.7	22%	8.7 / 10.8
11	Molly Mckinney '14	Stanford University Cardinal 1	15/15	2.13	1.85	−0.28	56th → 47th	0.5	64%	9.3 / 8.7
12	Giuditta Di Laghi '16	Hampton University	15/15	1.36	1.74	+0.39	32nd → 43rd	0.8	31%	9.8 / 10.9
13	Lauren-Alyssa Knoles '11	Michigan State University	15/15	1.12^u	1.64	+0.52	25th → 41st	1.5	41%	10.7 / 11.3
14	Dominique Wright '15	University of South Florida	15/15	1.70	1.31	−0.39	42nd → 30th	1.0	83%	12.4 / 9.9
15	Erika Vranizan '12	Western Washington University	15/15	1.12	0.70	−0.42	25th → 17th	1.1	87%	14.1 / 11.3
16	Rebekka Urbina '12	Texas A&M University at Galveston	15/15	1.12	0.62	−0.50	25th → 16th	1.6	94%	15.1 / 11.4
17	Ellen Dubois '14	University of Michigan	15/15	0.97	-0.42	−1.40	22nd → 3rd	8.9	98%	16.0 / 11.7
18	Natalie Sinn '12	University of Minnesota	15/15	1.03	-0.50	−1.53	24th → 3rd	11.0	99%	16.6 / 11.6

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

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ICSA Women's Singlehandeds

Division A 18 boats · 15 races

From the notes