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Richard Ross Trophy

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Williams College Williams College Ephs 11 11
2 Hawks Hawks Hawks 11 11
3 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 15 15
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo 20 20
5 Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 29 29
6 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 37 37
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 41 41
8 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 48 48
9 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 50 50
10 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1 54 54
11 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 55 55
12 Colby College Colby College Colby 1 55 55
13 Brown University Brown University Bears 62 62
14 Colby College Colby College Colby 2 62 62
15 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 69 69
16 Blue Blue Blue 71 71
17 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 75 75
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Williams College Williams College Ephs 1 1 5 1 3 11 Joshua Revkin '13
Hawks Hawks Hawks 3 3 2 2 1 11
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 2 1 3 5 15 Michael O'Brien '12
Carolyn Marsh '13
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo 2 4 6 4 4 20 John Evans '12
Hannah Duggan '15
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 5 5 11 6 2 29 James Downer '15
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 9 9 4 5 10 37 Max Fleischfresser '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 7 7 7 8 12 41 Victor Ansart '14
Sarah Long '14
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 10 8 15 7 8 48
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 6 6 13 9 16 50 Margaret Bacon '14
Charlotte Welbourn '13
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1 12 15 3 15 9 54 Andrew Mchenry '13
Kyle Robbins '13
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 14 16 8 10 7 55 James Pates '12
Leo Moses '14
Colby College Colby College Colby 1 16 13 9 11 6 55 Philip Hussey '14
Brown University Brown University Bears 8 10 17 12 15 62 Madeleine Harvey '12
Brandon Kaufmann '12
Colby College Colby College Colby 2 11 12 14 14 11 62 Marcus Josefsson '13
Katherine Mcelhiney '15
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 13 14 12 17 13 69 Andrew Angione '13
Blue Blue Blue 17 11 10 16 17 71
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 15 17 16 13 14 75
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears44444
Colby CollegeColby College Colby 11616161616
Colby CollegeColby College Colby 22121212121
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 11414141414
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 299999
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers1515151515
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 11010101010
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 288888
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats66666
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1919191919
BlueBlue Blue2222222222
HawksHawks Hawks1212121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya77777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbo1111111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1717171717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University55555
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs22222

Conditions — 10/01/2011 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1003.4 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 15.7 kn
From NNE (30°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine6.1 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1003.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.72 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →