Henry Luse

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 24 15 39
2 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 27 24 51
3 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 25 33 58
4 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 21 51 72
5 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 43 38 81
6 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 51 32 83
7 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 58 35 93
8 Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 39 60 99
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 2 1 4 2 2 2 2 6 21 Joshua Prucnal '16
Rachel Childress '14
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 1 4 3 1 5 5 3 2 24 Paul Stevens '14
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 7 2 6 3 4 1 1 1 25 Zachary Schippe '14
Megan Clark '14
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 3 5 2 4 1 3 4 5 27 Conor Cashel '14
John Koehler '13
Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 5 6 5 5 3 7 5 3 39 Giuditta Di Laghi '16
Ramatoulie Sallah-Mohammed '15
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 8 3 1 7 6 6 8 4 43 Paul Throop '12
Sean Magee-Saxton '16
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 6 7 7 6 7 4 6 8 51 Scott Barnhill '14
Caroline Carney '16
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 4 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 58 Scott Guinn '15
Ella Cahill '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 3 1 1 3 2 1 3 1 15 Brogan Savage '15
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 2 3 4 2 1 2 7 3 24 Nicolas Leeper '14
Michelle Edelstein '13
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 1 2 6 1 7 3 6 6 32 Alex Heid '15
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 4 5 2 8 3 5 2 4 33 Liam Boyle '16 [1-4, 6-8]
Jennifer Kempton '13 [5]
Mary Norcia '13 [1-4, 6-8]
Kristina Severino '14 [5]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 7 6 3 5 4 4 1 5 35 Cynthia Ciccotelli '16
Ian Kirkwood '16
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 5 4 7 4 5 7 4 2 38 Matthew Reeves '15
Eric Goldfarb '14
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 8 8 5 6 6 6 5 7 51 Ignacio Andreu Angulo '16
Abigail Lundahl '15
Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 60 Seneca Matthews '13
Albert Berk Toledo '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions11223344
Hampton UniversityHampton University Pirates22334455
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps33445566
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth44556677
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings55667788
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels66778811
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats77881122
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe88112233

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions1010171716161515
Hampton UniversityHampton University Pirates1111121213131414
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps1212111110101717
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth1313141415151616
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings1414131312121111
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels1515161617171010
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats1616151514141313
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe1717101011111212

Conditions — 11/03/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1012.0 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.6 kn
avg  ·  max 14.3 kn
Gusts to 26.4 kn
From NW (304°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine8.1 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1012.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Ocean County: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.39 ± 0.34)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ocean County by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Ocean County).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →