| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Fordham University | Olin Paine '16 | 4 |
| 2 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Nick Valente '16 | 16 |
| 3 | |
Fordham University | Alex Jacob '16 | 19 |
| 4 |  |
Webb Institute | Nathan Fast '14 | 19 |
| 5 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Timothy Zacher '13 | 21 |
| 6 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Wheeler Morris '16 | 24 |
| 7 | |
SUNY Maritime College | Mike Carr '15 | 30 |
| 8 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Andrew Bates '15 | 31 |
| 9 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Lachance '16 | 35 |
| 10 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Austin Neuman '16 | 36 |
| 11 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | John Darby '14 | 39 |
| 12 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Dylan Marohn '16 | 41 |
| 13 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Samuel Watterson '16 | 45 |
| 14 | |
SUNY Maritime College | Scott Lubliner '13 | 45 |
| 15 |  |
Syracuse University | Harmen Rockler '13 | 60 |
| 16 |  |
Queen's University | Gaels 1 | 72 |
| 17 | |
Queen's University | Gaels 2 | 72 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fordham University | Olin Paine '16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Nick Valente '16 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
|
Fordham University | Alex Jacob '16 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 |
|
Webb Institute | Nathan Fast '14 | BKD | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Timothy Zacher '13 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Wheeler Morris '16 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Mike Carr '15 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 30 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Andrew Bates '15 | BKD | 7 | BKD | 8 | 31 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Lachance '16 | BKD | 11 | 12 | 3 | 35 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Austin Neuman '16 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 36 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | John Darby '14 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 13 | 39 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Dylan Marohn '16 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 41 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Samuel Watterson '16 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 45 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Scott Lubliner '13 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 45 |
|
Syracuse University | Harmen Rockler '13 | DNS | 13 | 14 | 15 | 60 |
|
Queen's University | Gaels 1 | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | 72 |
|
Queen's University | Gaels 2 | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | 72 |
| Team | 1A | 2A | 3A | 4A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fordham University Rams 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Fordham University Rams 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| Queen's University Gaels 1 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| Queen's University Gaels 2 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| Syracuse University Orange | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Webb Institute Clippers | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olin Paine '16 | Fordham University Rams 1 | 4/4 | 2.87 | 8.75+ | +5.88 | 78th → 99th | 10.1 | <1% | 1.0 / 6.0 |
| 2 | Nick Valente '16 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 | 4/4 | 2.23 | 3.15 | +0.92 | 58th → 84th | 1.0 | 10% | 4.0 / 7.5 |
| 3 | Alex Jacob '16 | Fordham University Rams 2 | 4/4 | 2.47 | 2.74 | +0.26 | 62nd → 73rd | 0.1 | 26% | 4.8 / 7.0 |
| 4 | Timothy Zacher '13 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 | 4/4 | 2.05 | 2.25 | +0.21 | 53rd → 59th | 0.1 | 17% | 5.2 / 8.0 |
| 5 | Wheeler Morris '16 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons | 4/4 | 1.72 | 2.47 | +0.75 | 43rd → 62nd | 0.7 | 21% | 6.0 / 8.8 |
| 6 | Mike Carr '15 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 | 4/4 | 1.87 | 1.97 | +0.10 | 47th → 51st | 0.0 | 42% | 7.5 / 8.4 |
| 7 | Nathan Fast '14 | Webb Institute | 4/4 | 1.12 | 3.10 | +1.98 | 25th → 84th | 3.1 | 25% | 8.0 / 10.3 |
| 8 | Austin Neuman '16 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 | 4/4 | 1.47 | 1.52 | +0.05 | 37th → 38th | 0.0 | 48% | 9.0 / 9.3 |
| 9 | John Darby '14 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 | 4/4 | 2.22 | 0.69 | −1.53 | 58th → 17th | 4.6 | 81% | 9.8 / 7.6 |
| 10 | Dylan Marohn '16 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4 | 4/4 | 1.04 | 1.24 | +0.20 | 24th → 29th | 0.1 | 48% | 10.2 / 10.4 |
| 11 | Nicholas Lachance '16 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 | 4/4 | 1.29 | 1.49 | +0.21 | 30th → 38th | 0.0 | 65% | 11.0 / 9.9 |
| 12 | Samuel Watterson '16 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 | 4/4 | 1.00 | -0.29 | −1.29 | 22nd → 4th | 1.7 | 58% | 11.2 / 10.5 |
| 12 | Scott Lubliner '13 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3 | 4/4 | 1.31 | 0.22 | −1.10 | 30th → 10th | 1.7 | 67% | 11.2 / 9.9 |
| 14 | Andrew Bates '15 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 | 4/4 | 1.65 | 2.17 | +0.52 | 41st → 57th | 0.2 | 88% | 12.8 / 9.0 |
| 15 | Harmen Rockler '13 | Syracuse University | 4/4 | 0.11 | -0.23 | −0.34 | 8th → 4th | 0.1 | 80% | 15.0 / 12.6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
