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Princeton Women's Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 24 26 50
2 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 27 39 66
3 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 45 55 100
4 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 46 55 101
5 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 44 62 106
6 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 66 40 106
7 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 84 61 145
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 4 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 1 24 Mia Cooper '14
Mary Hamilton '14
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 1 2 3 3 4 2 1 1 2 2 3 27 Hillary Paulsen '13
Constance Noziere '16
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 1 6 5 5 5 2 5 4 3 1 1 6 44 Lucy Cobbs '14 [1-8]
Samantha Gebb '14 [9-12]
Greta Hayes '14 [1-8]
Isabel Bonnyman '14 [9-12]
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 6 2 3 4 2 3 4 3 5 6 5 2 45 Heather Richardson '13
Hilary Grantmyre '15
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 5 4 1 4 6 3 5 4 4 4 4 46 Derrill Hagood '13
Cassidy Fazio '15
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 5 4 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 66 Alex Hitchcock '15
Skye Kussman '13
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 84 Lauren Thompson '16
Alexandra Polli '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 5 1 1 1 7 26 Madeleine Sims '16
Caroline Wolff '16
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 5 4 2 3 1 1 1 DNF DNS 2 1 39 Quinn Howes '16
Dalton Brauer '16
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 3 3 5 6 3 5 3 2 3 3 3 40 Hannah Mcnomee '16
Meagan Murphy '15
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 4 7 6 6 5 5 2 2 4 4 6 4 55 Joy Macdonald '14
Kate Thomas '14
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 7 2 5 7 2 6 6 4 3 6 5 2 55 Kaitlynn Menoche '15
Ella Cahill '15
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 5 4 7 4 4 4 7 6 5 2 7 6 61 Eliza Crawford '14
Mackenzie Nelson '15
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 6 6 2 3 7 7 4 7 6 5 4 5 62 Elizabeth Smith '14 [1-8]
Sarah Gross '15 [9-12]
Margaret Meyer '14 [1-8]
Ashley Barclift '14 [9-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red112233445566
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams223344556677
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials334455667711
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions556677112233
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers445566771122
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels667711223344
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe771122334455

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red112233445566
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams223344556677
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials334455667711
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions556677112233
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers445566771122
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels667711223344
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe771122334455

Conditions — 09/22/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1010.8 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From S (187°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1010.8 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · N 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Princeton: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.09 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Princeton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Princeton, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →