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Colgate Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 19 9 28
2 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 16 13 29
3 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 23 13 36
4 Hamilton College Hamilton College Hamilton 28 18 46
5 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 15 45 MRP 60 MRP
6 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 34 33 67
7 University of Ottawa University of Ottawa University of Ottawa 35 32 67
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 1 1 6 4 2 1 15 Charles Nunn '16
Sarah Scheidt '17
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 3 2 2 2 4 3 16 Andrew Murphy '14
Patrick Stege '14
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 2 4 7 3 1 2 19 William Baxter '17
Christian Langalis '17
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 3 1 6 3 5 23 Robert Suriani '16
Julie Barbera '17
Hamilton College Hamilton College Hamilton 6 7 5 1 5 4 28 Ian Brown '17
Chris Dudley '15
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 4 6 3 5 DNS DNS 34 John Shanahan '16
Nick Margay '19
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa University of Ottawa 7 5 4 7 6 6 35 Hayward Peirce '16
Alexander St-Jacques '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 1 1 2 4 1 9 Sara Klik '17
Lindsay Burroughs '17
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 3 3 1 4 13 Lindsay Gimple '17
Rebecca Mount '17
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 3 2 4 2 2 13 Nicholas Pardini '16 [1-5]
Ana Becerra '16 [1-2]
Claire Alex '17 [3-5]
Hamilton College Hamilton College Hamilton 4 5 1 3 5 18 Nathan Arndt '16
John Boudreau '14
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa University of Ottawa 7 7 6 6 6 32 Jacob Thornhill '14
Ellen Whitehouse-Vaux '16
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 5 4 DNS DNS DNS 33 Chris Pomerleau '16
Vasu Gaur '17
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 6 6 5 5 3 45 MRP Thomas Burke '15 [1-4]
Ted Wingender '14 [5]
No Show [1-4]
Sarah Scheidt '17 [5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders224466
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red335577
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Hamilton446688
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings557711
University of OttawaUniversity of Ottawa University of Ottawa668822
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions771133
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange882244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders33557
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red44668
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Hamilton55772
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings66883
University of OttawaUniversity of Ottawa University of Ottawa77335
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions88224
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange22446

Conditions — 10/05/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 94%  ·  Pressure 1018.5 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.2 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From NNW (341°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine1.6 hrs Humidity94% Pressure1018.5 hPa Rain0.05 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 5 kn · SE 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Colgate: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.06 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Colgate by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Colgate: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →