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Midweek 'Fly - Fall13 #1

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Huskies 1 Huskies 1 Huskies 1 6 6
2 Huskies 2 Huskies 2 Huskies 2 21 21
3 Huskies 4 Huskies 4 Huskies 4 24 24
4 Huskies 5 Huskies 5 Huskies 5 25 25
5 Huskies 3 Huskies 3 Huskies 3 26 26
6 Huskies 6 Huskies 6 Huskies 6 29 29
7 Jumbos Jumbos Jumbos 29 29
8 Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 38 38
9 Engineers Engineers Engineers 43 43
10 Jumbalaya Jumbalaya Jumbalaya 45 45
11 Angry Beavers Angry Beavers Angry Beavers 48 48
12 Beavers Beavers Beavers 56 56
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT
Huskies 1 Huskies 1 Huskies 1 1 1 1 1 2 6
Huskies 2 Huskies 2 Huskies 2 2 6 6 6 1 21
Huskies 4 Huskies 4 Huskies 4 5 7 2 4 6 24
Huskies 5 Huskies 5 Huskies 5 8 4 3 5 5 25
Huskies 3 Huskies 3 Huskies 3 3 3 5 8 7 26
Huskies 6 Huskies 6 Huskies 6 4 8 11 2 4 29
Jumbos Jumbos Jumbos 10 9 4 3 3 29
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 6 2 8 12 10 38
Engineers Engineers Engineers 7 11 7 9 9 43
Jumbalaya Jumbalaya Jumbalaya 12 5 10 10 8 45
Angry Beavers Angry Beavers Angry Beavers 9 12 9 7 11 48
Beavers Beavers Beavers 11 10 12 11 12 56
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Angry BeaversAngry Beavers Angry Beavers44444
BeaversBeavers Beavers1414141414
EngineersEngineers Engineers33333
Huskies 1Huskies 1 Huskies 166666
Huskies 2Huskies 2 Huskies 277777
Huskies 3Huskies 3 Huskies 388888
Huskies 4Huskies 4 Huskies 499999
Huskies 5Huskies 5 Huskies 51010101010
Huskies 6Huskies 6 Huskies 61313131313
JumbalayaJumbalaya Jumbalaya22222
JumbosJumbos Jumbos11111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University55555

Conditions — 09/05/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 21.6 kn
From NNE (25°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover78% Sunshine8.3 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1014.9 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →