Peak Foliage Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 11 16
2 Boston University Boston University Terriers 10 10 20
3 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 20 22 42
4 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 21 25 46
5 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 33 16 49
6 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 21 30 51
7 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 42 32 74
8 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildkittens 41 38 79
9 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildmeece 32 52 84
10 Bates College Bates College Tomcats 60 44 104
11 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 60 60 120
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 1 1 1 5 Rolfe Glover '16
Leah Fletcher '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 2 2 2 2 10 Erica Lush '14
Zachary Vickerson '16
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 4 4 5 3 4 20 Nathan Alexander '17
Peter Kerby-Miller '17
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 5 4 6 3 21 Zachary Karakouzian '16
Emily Peabody '16
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 5 3 3 5 5 21 Karl Ryder '16
Evan Sampou '17
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildmeece 6 6 6 8 6 32 Alison Deyett '17
Molly Ohman '15
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 7 7 8 4 7 33 Holly Mcgarr '17
Amanda Ivey '17
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildkittens 9 8 7 9 8 41 Joshua Kegan '15
J. Devlin Keogh '16
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 8 9 9 7 9 42 Connor Bair-Cucchiaro '15
Jacob Barbato '15
Bates College Bates College Tomcats DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 60 No Show
No Show
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 60 Sarah Hyman '15
Kaitlin Hulce '14
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 2 4 1 2 10 Simon Bertocci '16
Madison Sparber '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 1 3 2 3 11 Nicholas Pfosi '16
Joshua Pfosi '16
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 4 3 1 7 1 16 Elyse Surette-Dimuzio '14
Jessica Horne '17
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 7 5 2 4 4 22 Madeline Webb '17
Cordelia Prouvost '17
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 6 5 5 6 25 Brendan Sleight '17
Kendall Young '17
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 5 8 6 6 5 30 Timothy Forgione '16
Mariah Allen '17
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 6 4 7 8 7 32 Emma Brinkman '16
Katlyn Flynn '15
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildkittens 8 7 DNF 3 8 38 Amelia Connell '16
Sarah Martin '15
Bates College Bates College Tomcats 9 9 8 9 9 44 Alison Maas '17
Kristen Moreau '10
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildmeece 10 10 DNF 10 10 52 Emily Chase '16 [1-2, 5]
Zachary Cronin '16 [3-4]
Stefanie Casella '16 [1-2, 5]
Tyler Parker '15 [3-4]
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 60 Rachel Rubin '14
Stephanie Parisi '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats11335
Bates CollegeBates College Tomcats22446
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers44668
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges33557
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers779911
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds55779
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers668810
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats9911112
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildkittens1010113
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildmeece1111224
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos8810101

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats22446
Bates CollegeBates College Tomcats33557
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers55779
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges44668
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers8810101
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds668810
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers779911
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1010113
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildkittens1111224
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildmeece11335
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos9911112

Conditions — 10/26/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1016.0 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 11.7 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From SSW (214°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine7.7 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1016.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at New Hampshire: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.52 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at New Hampshire by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at New Hampshire).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →