Laser North

HostKings Point
Date09/12/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	55
2	Queen's University	John Ruitenberg '19	62
3	Queen's University	John Machum '17	67
4	Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	68
5	University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	81
6	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Austin Neuman '16	83
7	Queen's University	Will Jones '17	118
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	122
9	Cornell University	Matthew Schofield '17	124
10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Chris Wilson '16	129
11	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Devin Keister '18	144
12	Webb Institute	Isaac Kremers '17	181
13	Cornell University	Philippe Williamson '16	195
14	SUNY Maritime College	Juan Lejarraga '19	195
15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18	209
16	University of Pennsylvania	Boyd Borjiet '19	209
17	SUNY Maritime College	Peter Maes '18	209
18	SUNY Maritime College	Andrew Hall '17	221
19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Ryan Smith '19	224
20	SUNY Stony Brook	John Haley '18	234

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	4	5	10	1	3	2	2	1	4	2	5	1	6	9	55
Queen's University	John Ruitenberg '19	7	7	2	7	6	3	5	3	2	6	6	2	1	5	62
Queen's University	John Machum '17	1	2	5	3	2	1	1	8	12	7	1	6	14	4	67
Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	3	6	1	4	5	8	8	10	1	1	3	4	3	11	68
University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	5	10	4	8	4	4	6	5	7	5	4	3	13	3	81
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Austin Neuman '16	2	1	6	9	1	6	4	2	6	4	12	9	15	6	83
Queen's University	Will Jones '17	12	11	7	13	9	10	7	7	9	11	2	14	4	2	118
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	9	8	11	2	14	13	11	12	3	3	14	5	5	12	122
Cornell University	Matthew Schofield '17	DNS	3	3	5	8	9	3	9	16	8	7	12	2	18	124
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Chris Wilson '16	14	4	8	6	7	5	12	6	5	9	10	10	16	17	129
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Devin Keister '18	8	12	12	10	10	7	9	4	18	10	17	8	11	8	144
Webb Institute	Isaac Kremers '17	10	13	17	15	15	17	10	17	10	15	13	16	12	1	181
Cornell University	Philippe Williamson '16	6	16	16	14	11	12	15	16	11	18	8	19	18	15	195
SUNY Maritime College	Juan Lejarraga '19	BKD	BKD	9	17	17	19	20	18	13	13	11	13	10	7	195
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18	13	18	20	19	16	16	17	11	8	14	20	17	7	13	209
University of Pennsylvania	Boyd Borjiet '19	15	9	15	11	19	20	19	15	19	17	19	7	8	16	209
SUNY Maritime College	Peter Maes '18	17	14	14	12	13	18	14	19	20	19	9	11	9	20	209
SUNY Maritime College	Andrew Hall '17	16	17	13	16	18	11	13	20	17	12	18	20	20	10	221
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Ryan Smith '19	11	15	19	20	20	14	18	13	14	16	15	18	17	14	224
SUNY Stony Brook	John Haley '18	18	19	18	18	12	15	16	14	15	20	16	15	19	19	234

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 20 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Nick Valente '16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1	14/14	2.82	3.56	+0.74	76th → 92nd	2.4	7%	3.9 / 6.6
2	John Ruitenberg '19	Queen's University Gaels 1	14/14	1.45^u	3.45	+2.00	36th → 89th	14.5	1%	4.4 / 10.5
3	John Machum '17	Queen's University Gaels 2	14/14	1.45	3.15	+1.69	36th → 84th	10.9	2%	4.8 / 10.4
4	Daniel Birmingham '17	Cornell University Big Red 1	14/14	1.77	3.22	+1.45	43rd → 85th	8.4	2%	4.9 / 9.5
5	Keen Butcher '18	University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1	14/14	2.31	2.85	+0.54	60th → 78th	1.4	16%	5.8 / 7.9
6	Austin Neuman '16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1	14/14	2.00	2.74	+0.74	52nd → 73rd	2.5	9%	5.9 / 8.8
7	Will Jones '17	Queen's University Gaels 3	14/14	0.87	2.13	+1.27	20th → 56th	7.0	10%	8.4 / 12.2
8	Connor Swikart '18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	14/14	1.91	2.02	+0.11	48th → 53rd	0.1	46%	8.7 / 9.1
9	Matthew Schofield '17	Cornell University Big Red 2	14/14	2.04	2.05	+0.00	53rd → 53rd	0.0	54%	8.9 / 8.7
10	Chris Wilson '16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	14/14	1.55	1.87	+0.33	38th → 47th	0.6	36%	9.2 / 10.2
11	Devin Keister '18	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	14/14	1.22	1.71	+0.49	29th → 42nd	1.2	37%	10.3 / 11.1
12	Isaac Kremers '17	Webb Institute	14/14	1.24	1.14	−0.10	29th → 25th	0.1	74%	12.9 / 11.0
13	Philippe Williamson '16	Cornell University Big Red 3	14/14	0.35	0.91	+0.56	11th → 21st	1.6	53%	13.9 / 13.5
14	Boyd Borjiet '19	University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2	14/14	0.90	0.54	−0.36	21st → 14th	0.7	85%	14.9 / 12.0
14	Juan Lejarraga '19	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4	14/14	1.43	0.72	−0.71	34th → 17th	2.6	95%	14.9 / 10.5
14	Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3	14/14	1.75	0.23	−1.52	43rd → 10th	15.0	97%	14.9 / 9.6
14	Peter Maes '18	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3	14/14	1.72	0.15	−1.56	43rd → 9th	15.1	97%	14.9 / 9.7
18	Andrew Hall '17	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2	14/14	1.09	0.10	−0.98	25th → 8th	5.3	94%	15.8 / 11.5
19	Ryan Smith '19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4	14/14	1.08^u	0.32	−0.76	25th → 11th	3.4	95%	16.0 / 11.4
20	John Haley '18	SUNY Stony Brook	14/14	-0.50	0.17	+0.67	2nd → 9th	1.8	65%	16.7 / 15.6

Conditions — 09/12/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle

Humidity 80% · Pressure 1008.6 hPa

Temperature

73°F

↑ 75°F ↓ 69°F

Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.2 kn

avg · max 11.4 kn

Gusts to 20.0 kn

From SE (146°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1008.6 hPa Rain0.14 in

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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