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UCSD Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 9 18 27
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 24 26 50
3 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 29 29 58
4 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 48 36 84
5 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 51 35 86
6 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 71 73 144
7 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 76 70 146
8 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 74 75 149
9 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 66 MRP 94 MRP 160 MRP
10 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 102 MRP 104 MRP 206 MRP
11 Aggies Aggies Aggies 116 MRP 101 MRP 217 MRP
12 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 120 MRP 125 MRP 245 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 Matthew Hecht '16
Hope Modugno '18
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 2 2 2 4 2 3 2 5 24 Sterling Henken '18
Amelia Anderson '18
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 3 3 3 5 2 3 4 3 3 29 Peter Wong '18
Paul Chyz '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 DSQ 4 5 4 3 5 2 6 6 48 Nicolas Delfino '16
No Show
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 5 5 8 7 5 7 5 5 4 51 Joseph Lausten '18
Helen Payne '19
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 4 6 4 3 9 8 6 4 2 66 MRP Brian Maclean '18
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 8 8 6 6 6 9 10 9 9 71 Olivia Gibbons '17
Kylee Walterman '17
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 7 9 7 8 8 4 9 10 12 74 Samuel Rohrbach '17
Rachel Wood '18
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 11 12 9 9 7 6 7 8 7 76 Kip Wanaselja '16
James Melvin '19
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 10 7 10 10 10 10 8 7 10 102 MRP Kyle Mcmanus '15 [1-9]
Rafael Gautier-Castro '17 [1-4, 7-9]
Bharath Tata '19 [5-6]
Aggies Aggies Aggies 9 10 DSQ 11 11 12 11 11 8 116 MRP
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 6 11 DSQ 12 12 11 12 12 11 120 MRP John Beutter '17 [1-9]
Kristopher Wong '18 [1-2, 7-8]
Grace Phillips '18 [3-6, 9]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 4 1 6 1 1 1 2 1 1 18 John Coakley '16
Melissa Schem '18
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 2 4 4 3 2 4 3 3 26 Neil Stapleton '18
Marissa Rajczi '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 3 8 3 2 2 4 3 2 2 29 Aaron Kiyotoki '19
Mackenzie Freeman '18
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 3 5 3 5 5 1 5 6 35 Grace Carrick '18
Sophie Ellison '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 5 4 1 5 4 3 5 4 5 36 Brett Farrell '17
Hayley Chong '17
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's DSQ 9 2 11 7 6 9 9 4 70 Alexander Brocchini '17
Conrad Esch '17
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 7 7 11 7 8 8 10 6 9 73 Levi Matsushima '17
Kelsey Trammell '17
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 9 6 7 9 10 10 7 7 10 75 Grant Lin '17
Lauren Liu '17
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters DSQ 5 10 6 6 7 8 11 8 94 MRP Philip Tagatac '17
Aggies Aggies Aggies 8 DSQ 9 8 11 11 6 8 7 101 MRP
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 6 10 8 10 9 9 11 10 11 104 MRP Conor Mcgee '17 [1-9]
Daniel Rust '19 [1-6]
Rafael Gautier-Castro '17 [7-8]
David Ball '17 [9]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 125 MRP Marina Lindsay '17 [1-9]
No Show [1-2, 5-6]
Anne Kleinaitis '19 [3-4, 7-9]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils404040404040404040
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang103103103103103103103103103
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters117117117117117117117117117
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1373737373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2383838383838383838
AggiesAggies Aggies474747474747474747
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters262525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins282282282282282282282282282
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1292929292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2303030303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos313131313131313131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's777777777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils404040404040404040
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang103103103103103103103103103
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters117117117117117117117117117
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1373737373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2383838383838383838
AggiesAggies Aggies474747474747474747
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters262525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins282282282282282282282282282
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1292929292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2303030303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos313131313131313131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's777777777

Conditions — 10/10/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1012.7 hPa

Temperature

85°F
↑ 91°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 86°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From W (260°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1012.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn · NW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC San Diego: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →