2017 Troy Swetnam Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3 13 17 30
2 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 29 28 57
3 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 49 13 62
4 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 4 28 35 63
5 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 34 35 69
6 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 31 46 77
7 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 44 62 106
8 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 60 58 118
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3 1 4 1 2 1 2 1 1 13 John Hanna '19 [1-8]
Hannah Barlow '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Parker Ellmann '21 [5-6]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 4 2 5 2 1 5 5 2 6 28 Alexander Thompson '18
Hayden Montoya '21
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 4 1 7 6 2 3 3 3 29 Benjamin Lipari '18
Adam Vollmar '18
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 3 2 4 5 4 6 5 2 31 Harris Cram '19
Jack Bishop '20
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 8 3 3 3 3 1 6 7 34 Caroline Bik '19
Carter Young '20
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 5 8 5 4 6 4 7 5 44 Haley Walker '18
Lyndsey Sager '21
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 6 6 6 8 7 8 4 4 49 Alexandra Oyston '18 [1-8]
Amelia Knapp '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Jette Polasek '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 60 John Jacobs '19 [1-6]
Jack Clark '19 [7-8]
Sadie Swindall '21 [1-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 4 13 Daniel Kendrick '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Walter Pospick '17 [5-6]
Megan Carugati '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3 2 3 1 2 2 1 5 1 17 Dean Bethel '19
Bailey Miller '21
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 6 2 3 3 4 4 4 2 28 Meiling Chan Chow '20
Gabby Spring '20
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 3 6 35 Andrew Essenburgh '19
Avery Edge '21
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 5 5 6 8 3 3 2 3 35 George Walters '18 [1-8]
Frederik Winguth '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Shahryar Hasnani '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 4 7 5 5 6 5 DSQ 5 46 Jessica Andres '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Katherine Byrnes '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Stephen Hahn '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexandra Speiss '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 7 6 8 6 7 7 DNS 8 58 Joseph Rogalski '19 [1-8]
Josiah Doty '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Aliris Lopez '21 [5-6]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 8 8 7 7 8 8 DNS 7 62 Raya Fortenberry '21 [1-2, 7-8]
Charles Larrouilh '21 [3-6]
Charles Larrouilh '21 [1-2, 7-8]
Raya Fortenberry '21 [3-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (26 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns88224466
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 111335577
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 222446688
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 133557711
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 244668822
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 355771133
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 466882244
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave77113355

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns11335577
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 122446688
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 233557711
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 144668822
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 255771133
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 366882244
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 477113355
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave88224466
School / Team SkipperCrew
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Benjamin Lipari '18 Adam Vollmar '18
Aggies 1 Meiling Chan Chow '20 Gabby Spring '20
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Alexandra Oyston '18 [1-8] Amelia Knapp '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Jette Polasek '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Aggies 2 Daniel Kendrick '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Walter Pospick '17 [5-6]
Megan Carugati '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston John Jacobs '19 [1-6]
Jack Clark '19 [7-8]
Sadie Swindall '21 [1-6]
Aggies 1 Joseph Rogalski '19 [1-8] Josiah Doty '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Aliris Lopez '21 [5-6]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Haley Walker '18 Lyndsey Sager '21
Aggies 2 Raya Fortenberry '21 [1-2, 7-8]
Charles Larrouilh '21 [3-6]
Charles Larrouilh '21 [1-2, 7-8]
Raya Fortenberry '21 [3-6]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston John Hanna '19 [1-8] Hannah Barlow '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Parker Ellmann '21 [5-6]
Aggies 3 Dean Bethel '19 Bailey Miller '21
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Alexander Thompson '18 Hayden Montoya '21
Aggies 4 Andrew Essenburgh '19 Avery Edge '21
Tulane University Tulane University Harris Cram '19 Jack Bishop '20
Green Wave Jessica Andres '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Katherine Byrnes '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Stephen Hahn '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexandra Speiss '20 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Texas University of Texas Caroline Bik '19 Carter Young '20
Longhorns George Walters '18 [1-8] Frederik Winguth '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Shahryar Hasnani '21 [3-4, 7-8]

Conditions — 09/16/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1015.4 hPa

Temperature

84°F
↑ 86°F   ↓ 81°F
Feels like 90°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From SE (128°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1015.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 4 kn · S 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Texas A&M Galveston: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.08 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Texas A&M Galveston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled days at Texas A&M Galveston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →