Can/Am Cup

HostQueen's
Date09/30/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED Promotional
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Queen's University	Gaels 1	33	35	68
2	ICSA-BUSA Participants	College Sailing 2	63	24	87
3	Queen's University	Gaels 2	50	66	116
4	Webb Institute	Seamen	55	75	130
5	McGill University	Redbirds	72	70	142
6	University of Ottawa	University of Ottawa	94	52	146
7	Hamilton College	Hamilton	87	90	177
8	University of Toronto	True Blue 1	46	142	188
9	Dalhousie University	Tigers	113	81	194
10	University of Toronto	True Blue 2	97	101	198
11	Royal Military College	Paladins	130	74	204
12	Webb Institute	Clippers	114	98	212
13	Rochester Institute of Technology	Tigers	96	130	226
14	Rutgers University	Scarlet Knights	93	146	239
15	ICSA-BUSA Participants	College Sailing 3	110	130	240
16	ICSA-BUSA Participants	College Sailing 1	141	121	262
17	Penn State University	Nittany Lions	146	128	274

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Queen's University	Gaels 1	1	3	1	2	2	2	7	5	6	4	33	Zachary Baum '17 Jeffrey Morris '19
University of Toronto	True Blue 1	9	9	2	3	4	5	1	7	3	3	46	Linor Rezin '21 Kate Kazlovich '21
Queen's University	Gaels 2	4	1	4	1	7	1	2	OCS	7	5	50	William Bruce '21 Georgia Stein '21
Webb Institute	Seamen	3	6	7	7	3	4	13	2	9	1	55	Ben Hunt '21 [1-10] Robert Maes '21 [1-2, 5-8] Jackson Juska '21 [3-4] Blake Loncharich '19 [9-10]
ICSA-BUSA Participants	College Sailing 2	6	4	5	4	OCS	9	6	1	4	6	63	Ross Murdoch '18 Emma Blackburn '18
McGill University	Redbirds	13	10	3	14	1	3	3	3	11	11	72	Nathan Drezner '20 Kathryn Mccracken '20
Hamilton College	Hamilton	2	8	15	12	OCS	14	8	6	2	2	87	Zachary Baum '19 [1-2, 7-8] James Reynolds '20 [3-6, 9-10] Sofia Maeztu '20 [1-2, 7-8] Sarah Downey '21 [3-6, 9-10]
Rutgers University	Scarlet Knights	8	13	12	8	14	11	4	4	1	OCS	93	Edgard Sanchez '19 Alissa Zambelli '19
University of Ottawa	University of Ottawa	12	7	6	6	5	8	9	OCS	15	8	94	Bradley Sheppard '20 Sean Wylie '21
Rochester Institute of Technology	Tigers	5	5	10	9	10	6	11	9	17	14	96	Kaylie Byrnes '22 Douglas Cochran '21
University of Toronto	True Blue 2	11	2	8	10	6	7	16	11	13	13	97	Alexandra Mclaughlin '19 Wyndham Mathiesen '18
ICSA-BUSA Participants	College Sailing 3	14	12	9	11	9	15	5	OCS	10	7	110	Aiden Young '20 Maeve Roy '20
Dalhousie University	Tigers	7	14	16	16	8	12	15	10	5	10	113	Danielle Muise '20 Robin Short '20
Webb Institute	Clippers	10	11	14	17	11	10	10	14	8	9	114	Peter Wiley '19 [1-10] Inga Johansson '21 [1-2, 7-10] Jack Becker '21 [3-4] Ian Cavanaugh '20 [5-6]
Royal Military College	Paladins	16	16	11	13	13	13	12	8	12	16	130	Nicholas Bell '19 Cody Carter '19
ICSA-BUSA Participants	College Sailing 1	17	17	17	5	15	17	14	13	14	12	141	Louis Normand Ang '20 Nicolas Metager '20
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	15	15	13	15	12	16	17	12	16	15	146	Dominic Ugoletti '20 Brandon Fedeli '19

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
ICSA-BUSA Participants	College Sailing 2	3	2	3	3	2	1	4	2	3	1	24	Berg Ellemers '20 Caroline Murdoch '21
Queen's University	Gaels 1	1	1	4	2	OCS	2	1	1	1	4	35	Scott Gittens '20 Marc De Verteuil '20
University of Ottawa	University of Ottawa	OCS	5	1	4	1	3	3	6	4	7	52	Paul Place '19 Samuel Place '20
Queen's University	Gaels 2	OCS	7	7	8	3	7	8	3	2	3	66	Emily Bugeja '21 Miles Lambert '21
McGill University	Redbirds	4	4	OCS	1	OCS	5	6	7	5	2	70	John Wittmann '21 Philippe Grenier '19
Royal Military College	Paladins	6	11	6	5	6	8	10	8	6	8	74	Daniel Zhao '19 Mackenzie Savill '19
Webb Institute	Seamen	5	6	5	6	4	10	14	12	8	5	75	Alec Bidwell '21 Muriel Weathers '19
Dalhousie University	Tigers	2	3	OCS	9	OCS	4	9	5	7	6	81	Annie Dysart '20 Caitlyn Macphail '20
Hamilton College	Hamilton	7	9	9	15	11	15	2	4	9	9	90	Isabel Kierstead '21 [1-2, 9-10] Michael Moubarak '21 [3-4, 7-8] Sarah Keefe '20 [5-6] Liesl Guenther '21 [1-2, 9-10] Lizzy Ely '21 [3-4] Roger Dunham '21 [5-6] Richard Huiskamp '21 [7-8]
Webb Institute	Clippers	9	10	11	13	10	6	7	10	11	11	98	Isaac Wilson '19 [1-10] Ian Cosic '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Alexander Koziol '21 [3-4] Bret Sharman '21 [7-8]
University of Toronto	True Blue 2	OCS	8	2	7	8	11	5	15	15	12	101	Dariush Solhdoost '20 Rudolph Guliani '16
ICSA-BUSA Participants	College Sailing 1	10	14	10	11	7	12	16	16	12	13	121	Jean Christophe Breton '21 Pierre Luc Stu-Marie '21
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	11	12	8	12	9	17	17	14	14	14	128	Annelies Mccann '19 Sarah Jensen '20
Rochester Institute of Technology	Tigers	8	13	OCS	DNF	OCS	9	15	11	10	10	130	Ian Taylor '18 Tyler Tomasik '20
ICSA-BUSA Participants	College Sailing 3	OCS	15	12	10	5	16	13	13	13	15	130	Amber Klassen '18 Charlotte Bireg '19
University of Toronto	True Blue 1	DNF	DNF	13	14	13	14	11	9	16	16	142	Benjamin Filewood '21 Nathaniel Winsor '21
Rutgers University	Scarlet Knights	12	16	14	16	12	13	12	17	17	17	146	Declan Mcnamara '20 James Trontell '21

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
ICSA-BUSA Participants College Sailing 1	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
ICSA-BUSA Participants College Sailing 2	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
ICSA-BUSA Participants College Sailing 3	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Dalhousie University Tigers	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Hamilton College Hamilton	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
McGill University Redbirds	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa	16	16	18	18	20	20	5	5	7	7
Penn State University Nittany Lions	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Queen's University Gaels 1	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Queen's University Gaels 2	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	4	4
Royal Military College Paladins	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20	5	5
Rutgers University Scarlet Knights	15	15	17	17	19	19	4	4	6	6
University of Toronto True Blue 1	17	17	19	19	4	4	6	6	8	8
University of Toronto True Blue 2	18	18	20	20	5	5	7	7	9	9
Webb Institute Clippers	19	19	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Webb Institute Seamen	20	20	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
ICSA-BUSA Participants College Sailing 1	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
ICSA-BUSA Participants College Sailing 2	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
ICSA-BUSA Participants College Sailing 3	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Dalhousie University Tigers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Hamilton College Hamilton	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
McGill University Redbirds	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa	17	17	19	19	4	4	6	6	8	8
Penn State University Nittany Lions	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Queen's University Gaels 1	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Queen's University Gaels 2	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	4	4
Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20	5	5
Royal Military College Paladins	15	15	17	17	19	19	4	4	6	6
Rutgers University Scarlet Knights	16	16	18	18	20	20	5	5	7	7
University of Toronto True Blue 1	18	18	20	20	5	5	7	7	9	9
University of Toronto True Blue 2	19	19	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Webb Institute Clippers	20	20	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Webb Institute Seamen	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Dalhousie University	Danielle Muise '20	Robin Short '20
Tigers	Annie Dysart '20	Caitlyn Macphail '20
Hamilton College	Zachary Baum '19 [1-2, 7-8] James Reynolds '20 [3-6, 9-10]	Sofia Maeztu '20 [1-2, 7-8] Sarah Downey '21 [3-6, 9-10]
Hamilton	Isabel Kierstead '21 [1-2, 9-10] Michael Moubarak '21 [3-4, 7-8] Sarah Keefe '20 [5-6]	Liesl Guenther '21 [1-2, 9-10] Lizzy Ely '21 [3-4] Roger Dunham '21 [5-6] Richard Huiskamp '21 [7-8]
ICSA-BUSA Participants	Louis Normand Ang '20	Nicolas Metager '20
College Sailing 1	Jean Christophe Breton '21	Pierre Luc Stu-Marie '21
ICSA-BUSA Participants	Ross Murdoch '18	Emma Blackburn '18
College Sailing 2	Berg Ellemers '20	Caroline Murdoch '21
ICSA-BUSA Participants	Aiden Young '20	Maeve Roy '20
College Sailing 3	Amber Klassen '18	Charlotte Bireg '19
McGill University	Nathan Drezner '20	Kathryn Mccracken '20
Redbirds	John Wittmann '21	Philippe Grenier '19
Penn State University	Dominic Ugoletti '20	Brandon Fedeli '19
Nittany Lions	Annelies Mccann '19	Sarah Jensen '20
Queen's University	Zachary Baum '17	Jeffrey Morris '19
Gaels 1	Scott Gittens '20	Marc De Verteuil '20
Queen's University	William Bruce '21	Georgia Stein '21
Gaels 2	Emily Bugeja '21	Miles Lambert '21
Rochester Institute of Technology	Kaylie Byrnes '22	Douglas Cochran '21
Tigers	Ian Taylor '18	Tyler Tomasik '20
Royal Military College	Nicholas Bell '19	Cody Carter '19
Paladins	Daniel Zhao '19	Mackenzie Savill '19
Rutgers University	Edgard Sanchez '19	Alissa Zambelli '19
Scarlet Knights	Declan Mcnamara '20	James Trontell '21
University of Ottawa	Bradley Sheppard '20	Sean Wylie '21
University of Ottawa	Paul Place '19	Samuel Place '20
University of Toronto	Linor Rezin '21	Kate Kazlovich '21
True Blue 1	Benjamin Filewood '21	Nathaniel Winsor '21
University of Toronto	Alexandra Mclaughlin '19	Wyndham Mathiesen '18
True Blue 2	Dariush Solhdoost '20	Rudolph Guliani '16
Webb Institute	Peter Wiley '19 [1-10]	Inga Johansson '21 [1-2, 7-10] Jack Becker '21 [3-4] Ian Cavanaugh '20 [5-6]
Clippers	Isaac Wilson '19 [1-10]	Ian Cosic '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Alexander Koziol '21 [3-4] Bret Sharman '21 [7-8]
Webb Institute	Ben Hunt '21 [1-10]	Robert Maes '21 [1-2, 5-8] Jackson Juska '21 [3-4] Blake Loncharich '19 [9-10]
Seamen	Alec Bidwell '21	Muriel Weathers '19

Conditions — 09/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 51% · Pressure 1027.8 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.6 kn

avg · max 10.1 kn

Gusts to 19.0 kn

From ENE (65°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1027.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 13 kn · SW 10 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Queen's: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Queen's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Queen's, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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