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PCCSC Men's Single-Handed Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT
Stanford University Stanford University Luke Muller '18 3 1 2 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 5 4 2 4 34
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Lucas Pierce '21 2 3 1 1 3 1 4 5 4 4 1 2 3 4 2 40
Stanford University Stanford University William Marshall '19 1 2 6 2 DSQ 3 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 1 5 50
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Ali Fuat Yuvalı '21 4 5 4 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 9 3 1 3 3 73 MRP
University of Nevada, Reno University of Nevada, Reno Hendrik Reidel '21 6 4 5 5 6 9 6 4 6 6 10 4 7 6 1 85
University of Southern California University of Southern California Nicholas Stefanoni '21 5 6 3 9 4 6 5 6 7 7 6 7 5 13 6 95
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 8 13 7 13 5 5 7 8 5 5 5 9 10 9 11 120
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Patrick Wilkinson '20 11 12 8 6 8 10 9 7 11 8 4 8 13 8 12 135
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Joseph Lausten '18 7 8 10 12 9 8 8 9 9 10 8 14 6 11 7 136
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Drake Hayes '21 9 9 12 7 12 11 10 12 8 9 7 10 8 12 14 150
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Jack Holbrook '21 10 10 11 8 14 7 13 10 10 12 12 13 12 7 9 158
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Nicolai Sponholtz '19 13 7 9 11 7 14 12 14 13 11 14 11 14 10 13 173
University of Nevada, Reno University of Nevada, Reno Ryan Conner '21 14 14 13 10 10 13 11 13 14 13 13 12 9 14 10 183
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 11 12 14 11 12 14 11 6 11 5 8 199 MRP
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Corbett Churan '21 12 11 14 14 13 15 DNS DNS DNS DNS 15 15 15 15 15 218
Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 2555555555555555
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 2158664158664158664158664158664158664158664158664158664158664158664158664158664158664158664

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  15 boats · 15 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Luke Muller '18Stanford University Cardinal 115/152.604.76+2.1768th → 99th15.2<1%2.3 / 6.4
2Lucas Pierce '21University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 115/153.144.30+1.1784th → 98th5.32%2.7 / 5.3
3William Marshall '19Stanford University Cardinal 215/153.294.50+1.2186th → 99th5.017%3.3 / 5.1
4Ali Fuat Yuvalı '21University of California at Santa Cruz15/152.033.77+1.7453rd → 93rd11.62%3.5 / 7.6
5Hendrik Reidel '21University of Nevada, Reno Wolfpack 115/151.27u2.79+1.5230th → 75th9.95%5.7 / 9.2
6Nicholas Stefanoni '21University of Southern California15/152.612.37−0.2468th → 61st0.352%6.3 / 6.4
8Patrick Wilkinson '20University of Hawaii15/151.851.55−0.3046th → 39th0.667%9.0 / 8.1
9Joseph Lausten '18Cal Poly University S.L.O.15/151.241.59+0.3529th → 39th0.746%9.1 / 9.3
10Drake Hayes '21University of California at Berkeley Bears 215/151.731.24−0.4843rd → 29th1.579%10.0 / 8.2
11Jack Holbrook '21University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 215/151.261.04−0.2330th → 24th0.374%10.5 / 9.2
12Nicolai Sponholtz '19University of California at Berkeley Bears 315/151.400.60−0.8134th → 15th4.091%11.5 / 8.9
14Ryan Conner '21University of Nevada, Reno Wolfpack 215/151.06u0.36−0.7024th → 11th2.791%12.2 / 9.6
15Corbett Churan '21University of California at Berkeley Bears 115/150.67-1.43−2.1017th → 1st10.0>99%14.5 / 10.4

Conditions — 10/07/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 20%  ·  Pressure 1009.1 hPa

Temperature

84°F
↑ 90°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.8 kn
avg  ·  max 3.6 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From SSW (196°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover6% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity20% Pressure1009.1 hPa

What this breeze does at UC Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at UC Santa Barbara in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →