LaserPerformance Men's Singlehanded Nationals

HostGrand Valley State
Date11/03/2018
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Harvard University	Henry Marshall '22	40
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Leo Boucher '22	71
3	Georgetown University	Thomas Mccann '22	73
4	Yale University	Nicholas Baird '19	75
5	Brown University	Patrick Shanahan '19	84
6	Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	88
7	College of Charleston	Gerald Williams '19	92
8	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Carrson Pearce '21	131
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Charles Carraway '22	137
10	University of Southern California	Upamanyu Dutta '20	141
11	College of Charleston	Malcolm Benn Smith '21	144
12	Jacksonville University	Jack Gower '20	156
13	Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20	165
14	Texas A&M University at Galveston	John Hanna '19	166
15	Stanford University	John Kirkpatrick '22	184
16	Oregon State University	Michael Levy '19	186
17	University of Wisconsin	Korbin Kierstead '19	215
18	Marquette University	Bobby Sessions '20	242

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Harvard University	Henry Marshall '22	2	1	1	1	5	3	2	5	1	9	2	5	2	1	40
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Leo Boucher '22	1	3	3	7	6	4	6	13	7	6	4	2	4	5	71
Georgetown University	Thomas Mccann '22	10	12	10	5	1	1	1	4	2	3	3	9	3	9	73
Yale University	Nicholas Baird '19	BKD	5	4	10	2	6	3	7	6	5	5	7	7	3	75
Brown University	Patrick Shanahan '19	7	4	2	DNS	12	2	7	3	15	1	1	3	1	7	84
Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	16	8	8	3	4	7	4	2	4	10	6	1	13	2	88
College of Charleston	Gerald Williams '19	6	9	13	2	3	12	5	10	3	4	11	4	6	4	92
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Carrson Pearce '21	5	7	9	4	8	OCS	9	6	18	2	9	12	12	11	131
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Charles Carraway '22	3	6	7	12	7	14	11	8	12	15	10	13	5	14	137
University of Southern California	Upamanyu Dutta '20	13	2	6	13	13	5	15	17	9	7	8	6	9	18	141
College of Charleston	Malcolm Benn Smith '21	8	13	12	11	10	8	13	1	10	11	13	11	11	12	144
Jacksonville University	Jack Gower '20	4	10	15	6	11	9	10	12	14	14	15	16	14	6	156
Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20	15	17	17	8	9	10	8	9	11	12	16	8	15	10	165
Texas A&M University at Galveston	John Hanna '19	9	15	5	14	15	11	14	14	8	13	18	14	8	8	166
Stanford University	John Kirkpatrick '22	14	14	16	9	16	16	12	11	13	18	12	10	10	13	184
Oregon State University	Michael Levy '19	17	16	11	15	14	15	17	15	5	8	7	15	16	15	186
University of Wisconsin	Korbin Kierstead '19	12	11	14	16	17	13	16	18	17	17	14	17	17	16	215
Marquette University	Bobby Sessions '20	18	18	18	17	18	17	18	16	16	16	17	18	18	17	242

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Henry Marshall '22	Harvard University	14/14	3.34	5.68	+2.34	89th → 99th	17.4	<1%	2.9 / 8.6
2	Leo Boucher '22	St. Mary's College of Maryland	14/14	4.41	4.40	−0.02	98th → 98th	0.0	38%	5.1 / 5.7
3	Thomas Mccann '22	Georgetown University	14/14	3.44	4.30	+0.86	89th → 98th	3.2	6%	5.2 / 8.2
4	Patrick Shanahan '19	Brown University	14/14	3.52	4.27	+0.75	91st → 98th	2.2	16%	6.0 / 8.0
5	Scott Rasmussen '20	Boston College	14/14	3.26	3.82	+0.56	86th → 94th	1.4	11%	6.3 / 8.7
6	Nicholas Baird '19	Yale University	14/14	3.80	4.44	+0.64	94th → 99th	1.8	34%	6.4 / 7.4
7	Gerald Williams '19	College of Charleston Cougars 1	14/14	3.66	3.88	+0.22	93rd → 94th	0.2	31%	6.6 / 7.7
8	Carrson Pearce '21	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	14/14	3.27	3.14	−0.12	86th → 84th	0.1	64%	9.4 / 8.7
9	Charles Carraway '22	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	14/14	3.16	2.98	−0.18	84th → 81st	0.2	67%	9.8 / 9.0
10	Upamanyu Dutta '20	University of Southern California	14/14	2.61	2.51	−0.09	68th → 64th	0.0	43%	10.1 / 10.5
11	Malcolm Benn Smith '21	College of Charleston Cougars 2	14/14	3.08	3.03	−0.05	83rd → 83rd	0.0	68%	10.3 / 9.3
12	Jack Gower '20	Jacksonville University	14/14	2.84	2.69	−0.15	78th → 71st	0.1	74%	11.1 / 9.9
13	Vir Menon '20	Christopher Newport University	14/14	2.71	2.41	−0.31	72nd → 61st	0.5	78%	11.8 / 10.3
14	John Hanna '19	Texas A&M University at Galveston	14/14	2.92	2.31	−0.62	79th → 60th	2.2	84%	11.9 / 9.7
15	John Kirkpatrick '22	Stanford University	14/14	2.94	2.03	−0.91	81st → 53rd	4.8	96%	13.1 / 9.6
16	Michael Levy '19	Oregon State University	14/14	1.67	1.97	+0.30	41st → 51st	0.4	56%	13.3 / 12.9
17	Korbin Kierstead '19	University of Wisconsin	14/14	1.69	1.41	−0.28	42nd → 34th	0.4	88%	15.4 / 12.8
18	Bobby Sessions '20	Marquette University	14/14	1.10	-0.16	−1.26	25th → 4th	4.6	98%	17.3 / 14.0

Conditions — 11/03/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 46°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.7 kn

avg · max 8.4 kn

Gusts to 19.0 kn

From NW (310°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1020.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Grand Valley State — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Grand Valley State in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Grand Valley State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Grand Valley State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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