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Frosh/Soph

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 7 7 14
2 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 15 10 25
3 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 17 12 29
4 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 12 19 31
5 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 17 20 37
6 Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking Women 22 19 41
7 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 25 30 55
8 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 35 28 63
9 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 30 35 65
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 1 2 1 3 7 Chandler Sharp '19
Reilly Berkshire '20
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 1 3 6 12 John Kauffman '22 [1-4]
Elizabeth Murphy '22 [1-2]
Maddie Tutton '21 [3-4]
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 3 4 7 1 15 Erez Buyukyilmaz '21
Liam Bontkes '21
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 4 5 4 4 17 Harrison Saliba '21
Adam Rollins '22
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 7 3 5 2 17 Benjamin Brown '22
Nicolas Navarre '20
Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking Women 6 7 2 7 22 Karey Sharp '21
Jordanne Johnson '21
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 5 9 6 5 25 Giancarlo Defrancesco '21
Cece Nielsen '23
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 8 6 8 8 30 Mandy Watson '21
Arielle Names '20
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 9 8 9 9 35 Keevan Tallon '21
Marelie Vorster '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 2 1 2 2 7
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 3 2 4 1 10 Kayden Polachek '22
Andrew Futcher '20
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 4 4 1 3 12 Benjamin Brown '22
Nicolas Navarre '20
Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking Women 1 5 5 8 19 Emily Tan '20
Laura Thompson '21
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 5 3 6 5 19 Avery Wolf '21 [1-4]
Nathaniel Gordon '20 [1-2]
Sarah Kahle '22 [3-4]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 6 7 3 4 20 Clark Weitkamp '20 [1-2]
Madelyn Carr '20 [3-4]
Wyatt Keysor '20 [1-2]
Carter Dojan '20 [3-4]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 8 6 7 7 28 Tillie Morris '22
Cayley Crist '21
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 7 8 9 6 30 Emily Hammond '20
Julia Soes '21
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 9 9 8 9 35 Emily Burns '20
Claire Bjornson '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 180808080
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 281818181
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 210101010
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies82828282

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 180808080
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 281818181
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 210101010
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies82828282

Conditions — 10/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1009.3 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.4 kn
Gusts to 23.1 kn
From S (190°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine5.9 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1009.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn · SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC San Diego: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.34 ± 0.29)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →