NE Fall Tournament

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 79
2 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 87
3 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 109
4 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 131
5 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 144
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Bates College Bates College Bobcats A 1 1 1 2 3 2 8 7 2 1 28 Dylan Whitcraft '19
Claire Deplanck '20
McGill University McGill University Redbirds B 3 2 3 5 1 6 1 2 5 4 32 Alec Coleman '22
Mitzi Ellemers '22
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards B 4 6 2 4 10 7 2 3 3 8 49 John Holt '22
Kathryn Dechambeau '22
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers B 7 7 7 7 6 1 6 4 1 3 49 Lucie Rochat '22 [1-4]
Warren Galloway '21 [5-10]
Mollie Ockene '21 [1-4]
Alexander Baskin '19 [5-10]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats B 6 5 4 8 2 8 4 1 6 7 51 Carter Goodell '19
Katherine Schell '19
McGill University McGill University Redbirds A 5 8 8 3 4 4 5 9 4 5 55 Adele Desbrisay '19
Isaiah Riesman-Tremonte '18
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen A 9 3 5 6 8 3 7 8 7 2 58 Timothy Burns '22
Christina Chamberlin '20
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers A 2 4 6 1 7 9 10 6 9 6 60 Alexander Baskin '19 [1-4]
Alexie Lessing '19 [5-10]
Casey Astiz '19 [1-2, 5-10]
Nick Jaczko '19 [3-4]
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen B 8 10 9 10 5 5 3 5 8 10 73 Thomas Laskarzewski '22 [1-10]
Savannah Kangas '19 [1-4]
Shay Doherty '22 [5-10]
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards A 10 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 9 95 Andrew Reynolds '19
Victoria Kyle '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats1122334455
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen443322111010
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds221110109988
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers3344556677
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards5566778899

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats6655443322
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen991010112233
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds778899101011
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers8877665544
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards101099887766

Conditions — 10/27/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 86%  ·  Pressure 1016.1 hPa

Temperature

37°F
↑ 39°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 31°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.6 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 30.1 kn
From NW (319°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1016.1 hPa Rain0.80 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn* · S 8 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Middlebury: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.42 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Middlebury by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Middlebury, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →