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2018 SAISA-MAISA SailPack Women's Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women 7 7 14
2 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 7 13 20
3 Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 17 17 34
4 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 23 14 37
5 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 13 29 42
6 University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Lady Tar Heels 25 17 42
7 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 25 23 48
8 University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 27 24 51
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women 1 2 3 1 7 Chloe Sweeting '22
Lexie Foos '22
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 5 4 1 3 13 Keara Paquette '21
Kate Karger '18
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 2 1 6 5 14 Anneliese Carlson '21
Natalie Leger '21
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Lady Tar Heels 3 3 5 6 17 Ann Burns Morrison '20
Elizabeth Krause '21
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 7 6 2 2 17 Julia Dworetzky '21
Grace Travers '21
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 4 7 8 4 23 Britt Osborne '21
Emma Corbitt '19
University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 8 5 4 7 24 Isabel Weber '21
Mary James '20
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 6 8 7 8 29 Madelyn Giles '20
Sophia Boyd '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils1133
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs4466
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Lady Tar Heels5577
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror3355
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack2244
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks6688
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women7711
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies8822

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils2244
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs5577
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Lady Tar Heels6688
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror4466
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack3355
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks7711
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women8822
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies1133

Conditions — 09/29/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.0 kn
avg  ·  max 3.7 kn
Gusts to 10.5 kn
From ENE (57°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1022.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at North Carolina State: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.26
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.14 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at North Carolina State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at North Carolina State).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →