Stuart Walker

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 30
2 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 30
3 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 88
4 Williams College Williams College Ephs 93
5 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 95
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 A 1 4 1 1 3 1 11 Alexander Baskin '19
Erich Wu '19
McGill University McGill University Redbirds B 3 1 3 2 1 2 12 Julian Qu '23
Theodore Janson '22
McGill University McGill University Redbirds A 2 3 4 4 2 3 18 Alexa Ripple '20
Ayden Watt '20
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 B 4 2 2 3 4 4 19 Alexie Lessing '19
Casey Astiz '19
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 A 5 5 6 7 5 5 33 Nick Jaczko '19
Mollie Ockene '21
Williams College Williams College Ephs A 6 DNF 7 6 6 6 42 Jamie Vaccaro '21
Elle Montoya-Kelner '21
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths A 8 6 5 5 DNS 7 42 Mclean Cozine '20
Lynn Fu '22
Williams College Williams College Ephs B 10 7 8 9 9 8 51 Patrick Hodgson '22
Priscilla Mercado '21
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths B 7 DNF 9 8 8 10 53 Emily Graham '19
Christopher Rabasa '20
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 B 9 8 DNS DNS 7 9 55 Liam Hahn '22 [1-4]
Vick Xu '19 [5-6]
Jeanelle Tsai '21 [1-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths112233
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds223344
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 1334455
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 2445566
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs556677

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths667788
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds778899
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 188991010
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 299101011
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs10101122

Conditions — 10/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1020.1 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 21.2 kn
From S (180°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine7.0 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1020.1 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Middlebury: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.27
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.36 ± 0.33)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Middlebury by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Middlebury, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →