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StormPack Hurricane Relief Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 86
2 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 90
3 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 100
4 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 103
5 Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 175
6 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 215
7 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 228
8 Davidson College Davidson College Wildcats 247
9 Pirates Pirates Pirates 299
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror A 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 Scott Harris '22
Conor Murphy '20
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels A 6 5 2 5 2 10 3 2 4 39 Ann Burns Morrison '20
Matthew Chenard '21
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe B 3 3 4 2 9 8 7 3 3 42 Claire Rae '20
Maria Torregrosa '21
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack A 1 6 5 6 3 5 2 10 7 45 Samuel Marcom '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Will Brooks '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Will Brooks '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Samuel Marcom '22 [3-4, 7-8]
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels B 8 2 9 7 7 3 4 5 2 47 Thompson Betts '20
Alison Tedford '21
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe A 5 8 3 4 4 2 10 6 6 48 Parker Bunting '22
Mariah Lee '22
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils A 10 4 8 3 6 9 6 4 5 55 Carolina Cassedy '22
Victoria Bevard '21
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack B 4 7 10 8 5 4 5 7 8 58 Adam Augustine '19
Baxter Barrett '20
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror B 7 11 11 11 13 11 8 9 9 90 Jordan Hayes '21
Katherine Richardson '19
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks A 9 9 7 9 11 18 11 8 12 94 Harley Lowery '19
Jacob Stasiewicz '22
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies B 16 10 6 10 8 6 13 14 15 98 Justin Harler '19
Emma Corbitt '19
Davidson College Davidson College Wildcats A 13 16 12 12 14 7 15 12 13 114 Marshall Brady '20
Sophie Coolidge '22
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils B 14 14 16 14 10 13 14 15 10 120 Moriah Taylor '19
Winston Yau '22
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks B 15 12 15 16 15 12 12 13 11 121 Drew Davey '22
William Foor '22
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies A DNF 13 14 15 12 14 16 11 16 130 Natalie Lovelace '20
James Toussaint '19
Davidson College Davidson College Wildcats B 12 15 13 13 16 17 17 16 14 133 Jeffrey Sizemore '20 [1-9]
Benjamin Bricio '22 [1-4]
Caroline Gschwind '22 [5-9]
Pirates Pirates Pirates A 11 17 17 17 18 16 9 18 17 140
Pirates Pirates Pirates B DNF 18 18 18 17 15 18 17 DNF 159
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Davidson CollegeDavidson College Wildcats171717171717171717
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils333333333
PiratesPirates Pirates222222222
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels777777777
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror555555555
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack666666666
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks888888888
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies444444444
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe101010101010101010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Davidson CollegeDavidson College Wildcats111111111111111111
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils121212121212121212
PiratesPirates Pirates999999999
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels161616161616161616
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror141414141414141414
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack151515151515151515
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks131313131313131313
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies181818181818181818
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe111111111

Conditions — 11/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.8 kn
avg  ·  max 11.3 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From NNW (336°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1022.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at North Carolina State: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.29
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.47 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at North Carolina State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at North Carolina State).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →