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The Jefferson Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 10 9 19
2 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 9 11 20
3 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 12 10 22
4 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 13 10 23
5 American University American University Eagles 16 21 37
6 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 24 25 49
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 3 1 3 2 9 Emma Sullivan '23 [1-2]
Elizabeth Harrington '22 [3-4]
Henry Gaston '21 [1-2]
Sarah Besecky '23 [3-4]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 5 2 2 1 10 Marion Hopkinson '20 [1-4]
Claire Lagarde '23 [1-2]
Frances Mcguire '23 [3-4]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 2 5 1 4 12 Adam Augustine '19
Jason Perryman '21
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 1 3 4 5 13 Alex Walters '22
Maureen Mcgarry '21
American University American University Eagles 4 4 5 3 16 Fan Tai Bridges '21
Celeste Newman '21
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 6 6 6 6 24 Umd Test '25 [1-4]
Olivia Haring '23 [1-2]
Maia Brydon '23 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 2 4 1 2 9 Matthew Weisenfluh '20 [1-4]
Frances Mcguire '23 [1-2]
Alyssa Price '21 [3-4]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 1 3 3 3 10 Conor Murphy '20
Sarah Bailey '23
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 3 1 2 4 10 Chris Lukas '21 [1-4]
Ryan Delaney '22 [1-2]
Joseph Giessuebel '23 [3-4]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 4 2 4 1 11 Hannah Lothrop '21 [1-4]
Eugene Pentimonti Iii '21 [1-2]
Lauren Murphy '23 [3-4]
American University American University Eagles 6 5 5 5 21 Kathleen Yellin '23 [1]
Charles Degen '23 [2-4]
Charles Degen '23 [1]
Kathleen Yellin '23 [2-4]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 5 6 DNS DNF 25 Elizabeth Keller '22
Helena Aberger '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles1133
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals2244
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps4466
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack3355
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 15511
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 26622

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles2244
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals3355
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps5511
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack4466
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 16622
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 21133

Conditions — 10/12/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1015.2 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.2 kn
avg  ·  max 3.7 kn
Gusts to 11.9 kn
From SSE (148°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover72% Sunshine6.5 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1015.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 5 kn · E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Virginia: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.16)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.32 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Virginia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Virginia, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →