Navigate

PCCSC Men's Singlehanded Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Paul Didham '22 5 4 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 27
Stanford University Stanford University John Kirkpatrick '22 8 1 4 1 4 3 4 1 1 3 3 BKD 7 44
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Lucas Pierce '21 2 2 5 4 3 4 5 2 3 6 4 3 3 46
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Matt Long '20 6 5 3 DNF 1 6 6 5 12 2 2 2 2 66
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Bastien Rasse '23 3 7 1 3 10 7 8 6 6 7 5 4 4 71
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara David Alexander '23 11 3 6 5 5 1 3 4 7 8 8 7 11 79
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Jayden Benedict '23 1 11 9 8 7 10 7 9 5 11 7 5 6 96
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Lukas Kraak '23 4 10 10 6 6 8 12 11 8 5 6 6 5 97
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Jacob Fisker-Andersen '21 10 6 7 11 8 9 2 8 10 9 10 8 8 106
Stanford University Stanford University Jacob Rosenberg '20 7 9 11 10 11 5 10 7 9 4 13 12 10 118
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Patrick Wilkinson '20 13 8 8 7 12 11 9 10 4 13 12 9 12 128
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Kai Ponting '23 9 13 12 9 BKD 13 11 13 13 12 9 11 9 145
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Liam Hood '20 12 12 13 12 9 12 13 12 11 10 11 10 13 150

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  13 boats · 13 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Paul Didham '22California State University Long Beach13/132.705.34+2.6472nd → 99th18.1<1%2.1 / 6.4
2Lucas Pierce '21University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 413/133.224.08+0.8785th → 95th2.910%3.5 / 5.4
3John Kirkpatrick '22Stanford University Cardinal 113/133.014.15+1.1583rd → 97th4.314%4.2 / 5.8
4Matt Long '20University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 313/132.873.43+0.5778th → 89th1.132%5.1 / 6.0
5Bastien Rasse '23University of Hawaii Rainbows 113/132.803.10+0.3076th → 84th0.437%5.5 / 6.2
6David Alexander '23University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 113/132.412.80+0.3961st → 76th0.733%6.1 / 7.0
7Jayden Benedict '23California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 213/131.56u2.40+0.8439th → 61st3.026%7.4 / 8.6
8Lukas Kraak '23University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 213/132.362.29−0.0760th → 59th0.058%7.5 / 7.1
9Jacob Fisker-Andersen '21California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 113/132.262.17−0.0859th → 57th0.068%8.2 / 7.3
10Jacob Rosenberg '20Stanford University Cardinal 213/132.811.45−1.3676th → 36th10.093%9.1 / 6.2
11Patrick Wilkinson '20University of Hawaii Rainbows 213/132.141.18−0.9556th → 28th4.390%9.8 / 7.4
12Kai Ponting '23Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 213/131.290.73−0.5630th → 17th1.193%11.4 / 9.0
13Liam Hood '20Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 113/131.590.63−0.9639th → 17th4.197%11.5 / 8.5

Conditions — 09/28/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1007.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 28.2 kn
From SW (232°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1007.8 hPa

What this breeze does at UC Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at UC Santa Barbara in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →