Bowdoin Mid Week Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 14 14
2 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 2 14 14
3 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 19 19
4 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 20 20
5 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 21 21
6 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 1 30 30
7 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 3 35 35
8 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 4 36 36
9 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 36 36
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 1 7 2 1 3 14 Benjamin Stevens '25 [1-5]
Lucy Dutton '25 [1-3]
Luna Soley '22 [4-5]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 2 4 4 3 2 1 14 Ted Lutton '24
Maggie Forger '25
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 3 1 7 4 4 19 Christine Reimer '24 [1-5]
Holliss Hirsch '25 [1-3]
Aidan Michelow '25 [4-5]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 9 2 1 6 2 20 Preston Anderson '22
Caleb Adams-Hull '23
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 2 3 8 3 5 21 Alex Kitay '23
Katharine Kurtz '24
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 1 5 5 6 7 7 30 Greta Shuster '25
Alli Fischman '23
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 3 6 8 4 8 9 35 Jack Valentino '22
Courtney Tally '23
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 4 7 9 9 5 6 36 Cameron Frary '24 [1-3]
Harry Stevenson '24 [4-5]
Claudia Mabley '24 [1-3]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 8 6 5 9 8 36 Esteban Tarazona '25
Lucas Johnson '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats 111111
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats 222222
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats 333333
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats 444444
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 166666
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 277777
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 388888
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 499999
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 51010101010
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 1 Greta Shuster '25 Alli Fischman '23
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 2 Ted Lutton '24 Maggie Forger '25
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 3 Jack Valentino '22 Courtney Tally '23
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 4 Cameron Frary '24 [1-3]
Harry Stevenson '24 [4-5]
Claudia Mabley '24 [1-3]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 Preston Anderson '22 Caleb Adams-Hull '23
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 Benjamin Stevens '25 [1-5] Lucy Dutton '25 [1-3]
Luna Soley '22 [4-5]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 Esteban Tarazona '25 Lucas Johnson '22
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 Christine Reimer '24 [1-5] Holliss Hirsch '25 [1-3]
Aidan Michelow '25 [4-5]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 Alex Kitay '23 Katharine Kurtz '24

Conditions — 09/23/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1020.3 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 20.8 kn
From SSE (152°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1020.3 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Bowdoin: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.28 ± 0.56)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Bowdoin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →